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Archived Posts

Market Still Overvalued, or Maybe Not

by Carl Swenlin

Earnings for 2017 Q3 will be finalized soon, but on a preliminary basis the S&P 500 has a P/E of 25, which is extremely overvalued. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index (black line) in relation to where it would be if it were undervalued (P/E 10 - green line), fair value (P/E 15 - blue line), or overvalued (P/E 20 - red line). Price moved well above that range over two years ago,  Read More

The #1 Lesson Learned From All My 2017 Trades

by Gatis Roze

Over 25 years of full-time trading, it's been my experience that, as an investor, one moves ahead by looking back. In other words, reviewing my 2017 Trading Journal will improve my 2018 results. Indeed, the tenth and final stage of Stock Market Mastery is to Revisit, Retune and Refine. It's a proven discipline that keeps on giving year after year. Having just reviewed my 2017 journal over the  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Market Strength Broadens

by Arthur Hill

---- Strong Pockets Outweigh Weak Pockets ---- Large-caps Lead New High Expansion ---- SPY Momentum Remains Strong ---- QQQ Continues to Lead ---- IJR Stalls Near Prior High ---- Seven of Ten Sectors Hit New Highs ---- Materials, Industrials and Finance Lead New Highs ---- MLP ETF Breaks Out ---- Biotechs, Semis and Buying Ugly ---- TLT Ignores IEF Break Down ---- Gold Breaks Out with Big Surge  Read More

Global Markets Rally, U.S. Futures Higher; Nonfarm Payrolls On Deck

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, January 4, 2018 Where's the top?  Who knows and the bulls don't seem to care.  As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones was left out as the only index not to clear a psychological or significant price level for the first time ever in 2018.  No worries, though, we can now cross that off the market's "To Do" list as the Dow Jones closed above  Read More

Which are the Strongest (and Weakest) Dow 30 Stocks?

by Tushar Chande

With the Dow closing above 25,000 for the first time ever, I take look at the components of the index and show which ones are strongest (and the ones driving the index higher).  I also look at NVDA and the $SOX index to show that the sell-off that caused the rotation out of tech and into financials has been mostly reversed within the past few days.  The broad market continues to be  Read More

Dow Finally Breaks Out

by Erin Swenlin

If you look at the DP Scoreboards below, you'll note that the Dow is the only Scoreboard with "red" on it. It is highly likely that red arrow or PMO SELL signal will evaporate tomorrow if we see a follow-on rally or even a slight rise. I'll send out a "DP Bulletin" when/if that crossover occurs. Looking at the chart, you can see that the Dow basically spent the last half of December in a  Read More

1/4 MarketWatchers Recap - Chart Breakouts - Technical Scanning - What Would You Do?

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of Thursday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Commodities Countdown Recording With Greg Schnell 2018-01-04

by Greg Schnell

This weeks Commodities Countdown covers off the extreme moves in a lot of the markets. Commodities Countdown Recording With Greg Schnell 2018-01-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA  Read More

BlackBerry (BB, BB.TO) Back To The Future!

by Greg Schnell

Blackberry (BB, BB.TO) looks like it is Back To The Future. The stock has been associated with a massive fall from grace in the wake of the Apple iPhone. But a couple of things have happened since those days. Blackberry built some serious tech infrastructure at the Waterloo university campus and started some exploratory ideas much like Google. Under John Chen's leadership, this  Read More

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup Video January 2018-01-03

by Martin Pring

This months Market Roundup live video has a lot of information on the bond market. The six-stage cycle is currently in Stage 3. This large overview shows some of the major macro trends that are breaking right now.   Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-01-03 from StockCharts.com on  Read More

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Dollar Index Is Just Above Make or Break Support--- Will It Bounce or Break?

by Martin Pring

Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market Dollar sympathy indicators are close to a major breakdown Canadian and Aussie dollars are driven by commodity prices Emerging Market ETF benefiting from a weaker dollar Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market As 2018 begins to unfold the Dollar Index ($USD) is moving ever closer to a major breakdown point. Moving  Read More

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Finance Sector Springs to Life - Regional Banks Surge - Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and USB Break Out

by Arthur Hill

---- S&P MidCap SPDR Catches a Bid ---- Finance SPDR Springs to Life ---- Citigroup and Morgan Stanley End Pullbacks ---- US Bancorp Leads Regional Bank SPDR ---- Broker-Dealer iShares Breaks Out of Flag ----  S&P MidCap SPDR Catches a Bid ----  Large-caps are leading so far this year, but mid-caps are not far behind. As of 11AM ET, The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)  Read More

Here's A Must-Own Industry Group For 2018 And A Very Bullish Relative Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 3, 2018 We're only two trading days into 2018 and already we've seen the S&P 500's first close ever over 2500, the NASDAQ's first close ever above 7000, the Russell 2000's first close ever above 1550.  Dow, where art thou?  Well, the Dow Jones may need another day before exceeding 25,000 for the first time ever.  Let's give  Read More

DP Alert: Whipsaw Back to BUY Signals - Dow Left Out

by Erin Swenlin

I had a bad feeling about the array of PMO SELL signals that appeared Friday and Tuesday. It wasn't worry about an upcoming decline, more the concern we'd see a whipsaw right back to BUY signals, which we did. Interestingly, the Dow was left out and remains on a PMO SELL signal as it struggles just to turn back up. You'll note under the "arrows" the date the signal generated. TheRead More

1/3 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Everything StockCharts - Anatomy of a Trade

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

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CRUDE OIL HITS ANOTHER HIGH AND NEARS TEST OF $62 -- UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS TEST OF SPRING 2016 HIGH

by John Murphy

UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT Energy prices continue to rise. WTIC Light Crude Oil is trading over $61 today for the first time more than two years and is nearing a test of its spring 2015 high just over $62. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) nearing a test of its spring 2016 peak. A decisive close over that previous peak would constitute  Read More

Bulls Open 2018 With A Party Like It's 1999

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 2, 2018 The NASDAQ loves January and January loves the NASDAQ.  If there's one month where the NASDAQ really shines on a relative basis, it's January (see Historical Tendencies below) and that index opened the new year like it owns January.  It was a very solid day across most areas, but the NASDAQ's 1.50% push higher easily  Read More

FAANG Starts the Year with a Baang

by Arthur Hill

The five FAANG stocks, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet), started the year strong as three moved back above their 50-day SMAs on Tuesday. Alphabet and Amazon were already above their 50-day SMAs so this means all five are back above these key moving averages. The chart below shows all five with the patterns at work. First note that all five are in long-term uptrends  Read More

Is Square (SQ) Setting Up A Move Off The Triangle?

by Greg Schnell

Square had a fabulous 2017. It ended the year with a bit of a pullback, but it might just be a nice opportunity. Square has formed a nice triangle right at a nice support level from early November. All of the payment system stocks had a good year last year. With the pickup in retail through the holiday season, this may just be the calm before the storm. I'd let someone else own it if it  Read More

Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2018-01-02

by Greg Schnell

This weeks Canadian Technician Video Recording 2018-01-02 has lots of information on Healthcare. As a sector that is moving to the upside, it looks timely. There is also information on the merger between Potash Corp and Agrium. Canadian Technician Recording With Greg Schnell 2018-01-02 from StockCharts.com  Read More

Pausing Market Triggers Whipsaw PMO SELL Signals on DP Scoreboards - New ITTM BUY Signal for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the SPX, OEX and Dow logged new PMO SELL signals. This was a function of the market consolidating and holiday trading, but it is important to note that these signals are arriving in overbought territory for these PMOs. After today's trading, their PMOs are already decelerating in an attempt to turn around. This means we could see a reversal of these signals very soon.  Gold has  Read More

1/2 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Seasonality Report - DP Report - "Monday" Set-Ups

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model

by Greg Morris

I'm going to start a new series of articles on building a rules-based trend following model.  For a host of reasons, I cannot provide readers complete details of the trend following model I currently use, but I can simulate most of the concepts in various examples, so you will have a good feel for how it works and what is required.  This article will lay out some of the concepts I  Read More

Here's One Chart That Screams BUY As We Begin 2018

by Tom Bowley

Special Note First, I'd like to wish everyone a Happy New Year!  Let's make 2018 our best yet!  Here are a couple of quick reminders: (1) If you like my Trading Places blog and you'd like to follow my articles every morning, scroll down to the bottom of this article, type in your e-mail address and click on the green "Notify Me!" button.  You'll then become a  Read More

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SPY and IJR Stall into Yearend - Energy, Materials and Industrials Finish Strong - 3 Materials Stocks and an Industrial to Watch

by Arthur Hill

---- SPY Ends the Year with a Stall ---- IJR Consolidates into Yearend ---- Energy, Materials and Industrials Finish 2017 Strong ---- Oil Finishes at High of the Year ---- Aluminum, Copper and Nickel Finish Strong ---- Three Materials Stocks to Watch (MLM, VMC, NUE) ---- Acuity Bases in Third Quarter ---- CPSI Winds up with Symmetrical Triangle  ---- Happy New Year!! ----   Read More

Why The Gold Trade Becomes Hard Work This Week

by Greg Schnell

Hindsight is a beautiful thing when asking where to draw a trend line. It's always obvious after. It is not obvious as the market evolves. For the GDX:GLD ratio, it started to create a little hook on top this week. I have a trend line on GDX:GLD ALWAYS. However, sometimes the ratio pulls back, then surges to higher ground. Almost every time, before the final roll over, it makes a pullback, then  Read More

Relative Rotation Graphs suggest to stick with equities (SPY) while keeping an eye on commodities (DJP) going into 2018

by Julius de Kempenaer

As 2017 draws to an end, the Relative Rotation Graph for asset classes is sending a very clear message! Equities are leading the way into 2018! The RRG above shows some ETFs representing various asset classes and uses VBINX, a balanced index fund, as the benchmark. With only SPY, representing the asset class equities, inside the leading quadrant and ALL others inside the lagging quadrant, the  Read More

DP Yearly Wrap 2017

by Carl Swenlin

Last week we were looking at a rising wedge formation, which we said normally resolves downward. This week price moved through the bottom of the wedge sideways, but that doesn't really qualify as a downward resolution, which would necessarily require price to move, well, down. Friday's price bar does convey a small burst of downward energy, but the two-week trading range remains intact  Read More

AstraZeneca (AZN) Surges! Are All Time Highs Next?

by Greg Schnell

AstraZeneca has not made all time highs for the last three years. However, this current setup looks like it could be the trigger point.  With everything surging and the MACD coiled, a sudden surge here could bring a whole new look to this chart. Happy New Year! Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.  Read More

Commodities Countdown Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-12-28

by Greg Schnell

This weeks Commodities Countdown covers off what I expect from a big bull run in Commodities. I cover off the gap up in Natural Gas, crude oil over $60, Gold and Silver testing important trend lines and resistance. The big trade of 2018 which I think will be the $USD. The recording goes into big details on all of these trades. The steel ETF is breaking out to new 5-year  Read More