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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

Materials Sector (XLB) Bursts Through Resistance with Confirming LT Buy Signal

by Erin Swenlin

While I maintain the DecisionPoint Scoreboard for the large-cap SPX, OEX, NDX and Dow, Carl maintains a DecisionPoint "Sector" Scoreboard. On Friday's DecisionPoint show (which airs Fridays at 4:30p EST on StockCharts TV), Carl and I pointed out that the Materials sector triggered a new LT Trend Model BUY signal. Interestingly, the signal came on the heels of a significant breakout. The only two sectors left with SELL signals are XLE and XLF, which have both been reluctant to accelerate off of December lows at the same rate as many of the other sectors. Read More 

ChartWatchers

Earnings Season Can Produce Real Sizzle

by John Hopkins

As earnings season gets ready to kick off this week once JPM, PNC and WFC report their results on Friday, here's a reminder that those stocks that come up big on the top and bottom line could ultimately become high reward-to-risk trading candidates, possibly multiple times. There are many examples of this from last quarter, but one stock that stands out as worthy of examining is Trade Desk (TTD). Starting with the initial boost from its earnings report, TTD rose over 30% after posting its numbers, then almost 19% when it pulled back to test its 20-day moving average, then Read More 

ChartWatchers

RSI Shifts from Bearish to Bullish for EEM

by Arthur Hill

The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) experienced a trend-momentum shift over the last few months as RSI moved from its bear range to its bull range. In addition, RSI came close to 70 (69.5) twice and EEM broke above its 200-day SMA. The downtrend reversed and I expect higher prices until the evidence proves otherwise.   The chart below shows EEM falling into October 2018 and then firming in the last two months of the year. EEM actually showed some relative strength from October to December because it forged a higher low when SPY forged a lower low. This is partly due to strength in China Read More 

ChartWatchers

Foreign Stocks are Now Rising

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, April 4th at 4:16pm ET. Much of the concerns over the past year have centered around weakness in foreign stocks, and whether that would eventually pull U.S. stocks lower. The general feeling seemed to be that sooner or later the discrepancy between strong U.S. stocks and weak foreign stocks would have to be resolved one way or the other. That meant that U.S. stocks would have to weaken, or foreign stocks would have to strengthen. Right now, it looks like the latter is the case. In other Read More 

ChartWatchers

Can Autos Accelerate Without Tesla?

by Greg Schnell

The auto charts are a mixed bag. For the last few years, they have had trouble outperforming; even Tesla (TSLA) has been dead money for buy-and-holders. However, it's starting to look like the broader group wants to start running; below are a few charts of interest. Tesla sits at the low end of the multi-year range. While the Tesla chart is definitely the most volatile automaker, it does not mean that the rest of the group can't go higher. If Tesla is going to keep bouncing off the lows, that is definitely bullish.  We also had a nice 3-month high on Ford (F). Ford has a lot of Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Federal Reserve Deja Vu

by Greg Schnell

As always, next week's Fed meeting will be closely watched, with chartists in particular watching it uniquely. On the chart below, the blue lines represent Federal Reserve meeting dates. Friday marked a test of the 2823 level on the $SPX. The brown line at 2823 was the closing level on the first Fed meeting of Jay Powell's role as head of the Fed. It's déjà vu all over again as we closed at 2822.48!  The green line has marked an important resistance level for the index, with the $SPX having tested and rejected that level multiple times Read More 

ChartWatchers

Could The S&P 500 Fall 2.6% Every Year For 16 Straight Years?

by Tom Bowley

In a sense, it already has.  Well, maybe not 16 straight years, but play along. I've done a lot of historical stock market research over the years and several patterns really stand out.  But one in particular always keeps me on edge as a short-term trader.  The week after options expiration generally is not good.  Over the past 7 decades, here is the S&P 500 annualized return by calendar day of the week: Mondays:  -14.82% Tuesdays:  +10.12% Wednesdays:  +20.09% Thursdays:  +10.51% Fridays: Read More 

ChartWatchers

Real Estate Now Leading On Asset Class- And Sector RRGs

by Julius de Kempenaer

This Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation for asset classes over the past 9 weeks. The main observation is that fixed income related asset classes are all inside weakening and heading, rapidly, towards lagging. SPY (stocks) is close to returning into the leading quadrant. The strongest rotation at the moment, Leading-Weakening-Leading, is now shown by Real Estate. This is interesting as Real Estate is both an asset class but, since not too long, also a sector in the equity universe. The asset class RRG shows VNQ rotating at the right-hand side Read More 

ChartWatchers

Party Like it's 1999

by Arthur Hill

Anyone recognize these two phones? A good old indestructible Nokia candy bar was the first phone for many of us. I had a few Nokia cellphones over the years and they always worked great, back in the day. And, we all remember the Nokia ring tone, which was the most played tune in the world as late as 2009. You can hear it about four and a half minutes into this Ted talk (The 4 Ways Sound Affects Us), which is worth watching (and hearing). Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) were leading telecom stocks some 20 years ago and both took part in the tech-telecom boom of the late Read More 

ChartWatchers

Tech-Dominated Nasdaq Leads Market Higher -- The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are Clearing Their November Highs

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, March 15th at 2:58pm ET. Just a week after slipping below their 200-day averages, the Nasdaq Composite Index in Chart 1 and the S&P 500 in Chart 2 appear to be ending the week above their November highs. That's the last overhead chart barrier to overcome below last year's highs. And increases the odds that those highs may be tested again. Chart 3 shows the Dow Industrials lagging behind. But that may have a lot to do with this week's heavy selling in Boeing. There seems little doubt Read More 

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