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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

Here Are The Best Seasonal Stocks During November In The S&P 500

by Tom Bowley

There are different ways to view best seasonal stocks depending on whether you're interested solely in average returns for a particular month or time period or if you're interested in the percentage times that a security rises for a particular month or time period.  Thus, is consistency more important or the absolute returns?  I'll concentrate on the latter.  The following list of stocks highlights the best performing stocks during the month of November on the S&P 500 (average November returns): Akamai (AKAM):  +16.2% (last 10 years:  -0.3%) Read More 

ChartWatchers

Small-cap ETFs Lag in October, but Break out of Flag Patterns

by Arthur Hill

The EW S&P 500 ETF, S&P MidCap SPDR and S&P 500 SPDR moved to new highs this week, but the S&P SmallCap iShares and Russell 2000 iShares are lagging and remain below their early October highs, which were 52-week highs. The PerfChart below shows the performance for seven major index ETFs this month. SPY, MDY, QQQ and DIA are leading with gains exceeding 2%. IJR and IWM are lagging with gains around 1%.  Even though IWM and IJR are lagging this month, I would not feel too bad for small-caps because they are still leading since mid Read More 

ChartWatchers

Bouncing Dollar Hurts Gold, Rising Rates Boost Copper

by John Murphy

The fact that U.S. rates are rising faster than elsewhere on the globe is boosting the dollar. A rising dollar usually hurts the price of gold. And it is. Chart 1 shows the upturn in the Dollar Index (UUP) near the start of September (when Treasury yields turned up) coinciding with a decline in gold (GLD). It also makes economic sense that a stronger global economy would favor stocks tied to industrial metals (like aluminum, copper, and steel) over gold. And that is certainly the case. The rising brown line in Chart 2 is a ratio of the copper miners ETF (COPX) divided by gold miners (GDX) Read More 

ChartWatchers

Gold Losing Its Shine - New IT Trend Model Neutral Signal Arrives

by Erin Swenlin

I recently wrote about Gold in the DecisionPoint blog. We saw the 20-EMA pull out of its decline to keep its ITTM BUY signal. However, the gravitational pull of price after it couldn't hold support at 1300 was too much and the 20-EMA finished just below the 50-EMA today. An ITTM Neutral signal is generated when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. Recall that if the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, it implies that bull market rules should be applied. With that in mind, a negative crossover is a neutral rather than a SELL if the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA Read More 

ChartWatchers

Earnings Season Full Speed Ahead

by John Hopkins

Earnings season is in full swing now and so far so good. How do I know this? All you have to do is look at the overall market reaction. And it doesn't hurt when a giant tech company left for dead knocks it out of the park. Take a look at the chart below on IBM, a company that has been lagging the market for a long time. but with one earnings announcement IBM reminded the market it still has some life in it, climbing 10% after reporting a blowout quarter. You can see from the price and volume action how pleased investors were with the results. IBM is still well off its March high but now Read More 

ChartWatchers

Get Ready - Earnings Season is About to Begin

by John Hopkins

They say how time flies; and it's true, especially from one earnings season to another, and starting this week we're going to start hearing from thousands of companies as they release their numbers. And boy, there's nothing traders and longer term investors care about more than earnings. This makes total sense. Think about it. Companies cannot control everything swirling around them. What they can do is adapt to the times, adjust their strategies as necessary and stay focused while delivering strong results for their shareholders. One thing is for sure; traders gravitate to those Read More 

ChartWatchers

The NASDAQ 100 Hit a Record High This Week, But Still Lags The S&P 500

by John Murphy

Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the market. The QQQ, however, has still been a relative laggard over the last month. That's shown by the falling QQQ/SPX ratio since the start of September (blue line). This week's upturn in its RS line may be a sign that some funds are flowing back into large tech stocks. But there's more going on beneath the surface with the QQQ. For one thing, comparing the QQQ to the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Four Critical Signals That Confirm It's Full Speed Ahead For Equities

by Tom Bowley

I've been following the stock market for a long time and I'm always searching for that perfect signal that never fails.  I still haven't found it and there are never any guarantees in the stock market, BUT following the rotation of money to aggressive areas of the stock market can provide fairly reliable confirmation that a bull market rally is sustainable.  The four relative ratios that I rely on the most are the following: 1.  Consumer discretionary vs. consumer staples (XLY:XLP) This is just a very simple analysis of whether market participants are Read More 

ChartWatchers

A Pullback in the Energy SPDR? Here's What to Watch.

by Arthur Hill

The Energy SPDR (XLE) is the top performing sector SPDR since mid August with a double digit advance over the last seven weeks. On the price chart, XLE broke out of the channel, exceeded its summer highs and pushed RSI above 70 for the first time this year. It was a remarkable move, but the ETF is short-term overbought and ripe for a corrective period, which could involve a pullback or a consolidation.  Where might a pullback find support and reverse? I am watching the summer highs, the Fibonacci Retracements and RSI for answers to this question. A key tenet of Read More 

ChartWatchers

Weekly PMO BUY Signals Explode on DecisionPoint Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

Today all but the NDX garnered new PMO BUY signals in the intermediate term. The intermediate-term PMO signals are gathered from the weekly chart PMOs and their crossovers. I'll give you a peek at the NDX weekly chart too, but it is much further away from a new weekly BUY signal. In fact, the NDX weekly chart looks surprisingly bearish.  The SPX is in a rising trend channel. Trend lines are in the eyes of the beholder and remember, you can draw interior trendlines, tight trendlines to OHLC bars/line charts, or you can draw a trendline that hits most rising bottoms (or Read More 

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