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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

The $USD Hits Resistance

by Greg Schnell

This week the US Dollar climbed to its highest level in two months. For those who have been following the Commodities Countdown articles, the reversal in the $USD was expected from the big downtrend. The three-year chart of the $USD shows the Euro turning higher at the start of 2017, the British Pound basing until March and then turning higher and the Canadian Dollar bottoming in May and surging higher. With every chart making new 52-week highs against the Dollar, this is a significant technical change. The $USD made new two-year lows. The macro suggests major change is afoot Read More 

ChartWatchers

Rising Energy Prices Help Boost August CPI, British Pound Surges to Yearly High

by John Murphy

ENERGY ETF REACHES FIVE-MONTH HIGH It was reported Thursday that the headline CPI for August rose 0.4% from the previous month, which was its biggest monthly gain since January. That boosted its year-over-year comparison to 1.9%, which is just shy of the Fed's target of 2% inflation. The biggest reason for that jump was a 2.8% monthly gain in the price of gasoline. The core CPI figure (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% during August, which was its biggest monthly gain since February (for a year-over-year gain of 1.7%). Rising housing costs were the biggest reason for that gain Read More 

ChartWatchers

Finding Stocks Poised To Begin A Pre-Earnings Run Higher

by Tom Bowley

If only it was that easy, right?  The problem many times is that a company that reports great results one quarter fails to do so the next.  But my strategy is to find companies that not only reported great results in the prior quarter, but also showed major accumulation at the time, and just after, that earnings report was released.  Analyzing the volume is critical during this step.  I look for well above average volume for a period of a few days or more as the stock rises after its earnings-related gap higher.  Over the next few to several weeks, these Read More 

ChartWatchers

Car Manufacturers Rev Up

by Greg Schnell

In the wake of the devastation of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, a lot of cars were flooded. When scrolling through the auto charts, a few were breaking some trend lines this week. GM is pushing to new highs since basing for 4 years between $23 and $36. Toyota broke a 2-year trend line and closed near the highs of the week. There is some horizontal resistance at $124 when trying to push to new 52-week highs. The weekly MACD looks ready to break out from a five year down trend in momentum. Tesla had a surge this week as well, and is ready to test Read More 

ChartWatchers

What Does a Trend Line Really Tell Us?

by Arthur Hill

We all know what a trend line is, but does a trend line actually dictate the trend? In other words, does a trend line break actually signal a trend reversal? Or, is a trend line break telling us something else? We cannot use a tool unless we fully understand it and this article will shed some light on the humble trend line. At the very least, I hope to stimulate the analysis process by challenging you to think hard about an indicator and its message.  At its most basic, a trend line is a line that connects a series of rising troughs or falling peaks. A rising Read More 

ChartWatchers

Who Do You Trust More? Active Money Managers or Individual Investors?

by Erin Swenlin

This week sentiment was mixed. Typically we see the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure index give the same message. However when I pulled up the charts to present during the sentiment segment of MarketWatchers LIVE, I saw the dissonance.  The AAII sentiment survey asks individual investors whether they are bulls or bears. It's a poll, so that has to be considered. It's easy to say "I'm bullish" and yet sell many of your positions. However, sentiment surveys are useful. Remember that sentiment Read More 

ChartWatchers

A Picture tells a Thousand Words

by John Hopkins

One of the benefits of technical analysis is being able to look at a chart to help determine if a stock is a viable trading candidate. In other words, what does a technician see in a chart that would lead to the conclusion that a specific stock is or isn't a high reward to risk trading candidate?  I have found chart reading to be particularly useful after a company reports quarterly earnings and have developed some specific signs/indicators I look for to help me determine if a stock is worth pursuing for a trade. First, does the stock rise or fall once earnings are released? This is Read More 

ChartWatchers

Are Australian Stocks Flat or Trending Higher? - Weak USD Boosts Australian ETF

by Arthur Hill

The Australia All Ords Index ($AORD) is trading well below its April-May highs and stuck in a long and tight consolidation. In contrast, the Australian iShares (EWA) hit a 52-week high in late July and remains close to this high. Which one are we to believe? Are Australian stocks lagging like $AORD or leading like EWA? Let's investigate.  The lower window shows the Australia iShares breaking out to new highs in July and outperforming $AORD over the past year. There are probably some different holdings or weightings between the two, but this does not Read More 

ChartWatchers

All Bond Categories Are Underperforming Gold In 2017

by John Murphy

During the week, I wrote about gold (and gold miners) achieving upside breakouts and outperforming stocks for the first time since 2011. Gold, however, is also doing better than bonds for the first time in six years. Not just some bond categories, but all of them. The chart below plots five bond ETFs relative to the price of gold (flat black line) since the start of the year. And all five categories are underperforming the metal. They include long and intermediate term Treasury bonds, investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, and Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). And Read More 

ChartWatchers

Trade Strength; Here Are The Best Industry Groups In The Aggressive Sectors

by Tom Bowley

One of my trading strategies is to trade the best stocks in the best industries at the best price.  Sounds easy enough, right?  But what does this mean exactly?  Well, first I take a top down approach and review every industry group within each aggressive sector - technology, industrials, financials and consumer discretionary.  Below are my favorites in each of these sectors and why. Technology If I simply looked at recent returns, computer hardware ($DJUSCR) and software ($DJUSSW) would top my list as they've both risen more than 5% over the past three months Read More 

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