Commodities Countdown

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Create Reversal Signals 2018-09-21 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities kicked off a parade of signals this week. After months of beating up buyers, the charts kicked off some significant oversold reversal signals. Going through the charts, a theme of reversals emerged. Crude Oil moved above the 50 day moving average last week. This week it held up there, but the related ETF's started to join the party. Things get real bullish if the $BPENER moves above the 50 day moving average. The price of $BRENT crude is also testing a breakout. One unfortunate technical indicator is the PPO has rolled over on Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Continue To Struggle 2018-09-14 Video

by Greg Schnell

The commodity charts continue to drift lower. There are lots of nice trend lines formed, but there seems to be little energy for a break to the upside just yet. The currency charts are important this week as the $USD seems set up for a sell signal on the momentum indicator. That might create a spark in the commodities and the emerging markets. The Yen is still holding above the black horizontal support line. However, the zoom panel shows a strong move down on the week with a lower high and lower low. So this is not supportive of a dollar move lower. Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Continue To Weaken 2018-09-07 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities continue to weaken again this week. Whether it was Copper or Aluminum, Natural Gas or Gasoline, it was another tough week for the commodity arena. The $CRB closed below the midpoint on the week and reversed the two week counter trend rally. The index also closed at a major horizontal support/resistance level around 190.5. Both Oil and Natural Gas pulled back.  Copper and Aluminum. Copper continues to unload. Aluminum is struggling to hold above support but it still is above. Gold continues to hold at Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Just A Wiggle In Commodities 2018-08-31 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities wiggled this week. It wasn't very exciting to watch but it still suggests paying attention. Crude oil closed above the 50 day moving average, but some corresponding ETF's didn't rally with oil. XOP in the bottom panel traded sideways all week and closed marginally above the 50 day ma. While oil had a nice uptrend, XLE actually closed slightly lower than last week. I still like the oil related trade setup here, but the tepid performance suggests watching closely for a better entry. This week didn't really motivate the buyers. Natural Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Try To Break Trend Lines 2018-08-24 Video

by Greg Schnell

Breadth has improved considerably in the last 8 days. This has been a very important change. While some analysts have been bullish throughout the months of July and August, I was very concerned with the lack of new highs and the weakness in the Advance Decline lines. These breadth indicators have had a big bullish push. In the middle panel, notice the weakness from mid July to early August. The fresh bullish thrust is very encouraging. On the lower panel, you can see the Advance - Decline line had been decelerating from early July until mid last week. It also broke the Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Struggle 2018-08-20 Video

by Greg Schnell

While the Commodity markets were deeply oversold, the USD hit a 70 RSI on both Daily and Weekly charts. Perhaps this will spur a small bounce. The overall markets are aligning very defensively as the $SPX tests prior highs. While it means some sectors are still working, other former leaders are struggling. The Perf Chart below is for the last 22 days relative to the $SPX. Due to some technical problems within my computer, I am unable to annotate charts to go along with the video this week. So here is the video I recorded on Monday August 20th. Read More 

Commodities Countdown

A Ballistic Move In The Dollar 2018-08-12 Video

by Greg Schnell

It seems like most weeks I start this article with a discussion of the dollar. This week will be no exception. The Dollar subtly broke above resistance. Actually, no, that is not what happened. The dollar popped like a champagne cork above resistance and there was nothing subtle about the move. Currency charts all over the world snapped through meaningful levels. A few currencies stayed in their ranges but most lost support. The biggest thing on the chart is the weekly RSI kicking out a bull market signal. The PPO broke out of the down-sloping trend in momentum a while ago, but the Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Trade Sideways 2018-08-05 Video

by Greg Schnell

Most of the commodities traded within their range of the last month. Wheat and corn were the exceptions. The $USD pushed to its highest weekly close but still trading in the range around 95. The energy markets all traded below their 50 day moving average to close out the week. Industrial metals had a mixed week but no real price direction of significance. Here are the heating oil and gasoline charts. Just a reminder, I am the opening speaker kicking off Chartcon 2018 on Friday morning Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Indexes Get Bruised 2018-07-27 Video

by Greg Schnell

With the rest of the world doing pretty well, the North American market struggled for the week. The $SPX was up slightly but the Nasdaq and the Russell were down. The Canadian market was also lower. How the rest of world responds next week to the US weakness on Friday will be important. The European indexes look like they could be ready to break out to the upside.  Here is Germany. The PPO just gave a positive cross on the weekly chart right at zero. This looks like a nice setup. With a stop below the 40 week moving average currently at the 12750 Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Wild Week Of Reversals 2018-07-20 Video

by Greg Schnell

This week saw most of the commodities continue lower. Wheat actually moved above the 10 Week moving average. All of the rest of the commodities are below. It is not very often everything is this beaten down. The $SPX was flat for the week. The US dollar dropped hard on Friday back into the middle of the two month trading range. As well the bond prices fell away from resistance pushing the long end of the yield curve higher. Gold has some nice buying wicks for the last three days in one of the most unloved areas of the market. It is already up $20 off the lows of Wednesday. Read More 

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