Dancing with the Trend

Greg Morris
About the author: has been a technical market analyst for over 40 years and is the author of several popular financial analysis books including Candlestick Charting Explained, Investing with the Trend and The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. Before retiring, he served as the Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman of the Investment Committee for a technical-based money management company with over $5.5 billion under management. Greg has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg Television and has also spoken at numerous financial conferences around the world.

Latest Posts

Dancing with the Trend

Momentum - Rate of Change

by Greg Morris

Too often I see a basic misunderstanding between Momentum, Rate of Change, and Price Difference.  Let me try to make it clear.  They are essentially the same thing. Momentum Momentum deals with the rate at which prices are changing, kind of like acceleration and deceleration. Here is the formula for momentum: (Close / Close n periods ago) x 100 (n denotes the number of periods used).  If there is no change in price over your specified time period, Momentum will be 100; positive price changes will have Momentum greater than 100 and negative price changes will have Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Technical Analysts!

by Greg Morris

After 45+ years as a technical analyst I have found that this breed of folks comes in many sizes and flavors.  I can write about each of them simply because I have at one time or another been there, done that, and still doing it.  In doing this I’ll share some stories along with the usual strong opinions.  I always like to set a goal for an article, so this one is just trying to share an awareness that you may or may not know. Newbie Probably self-explanatory, however a newbie can originate from different directions and angles.  We have Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Hindenburg Omen Update

by Greg Morris

The Hindenburg Omen has been touted often lately.  I thought I’d share with you information about it that I obtained directly from its creator, James Miekka.  Most of the below came from the second edition of my “The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators.”  It is only available from Amazon. Also known as: New High New Low Sell Signal Author/Creator:  James R. Miekka. Data components required:  New Highs (H), New Lows (L), Advances (A), Declines (D), Total Issues (TI), Market Index (MKT) Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 14

by Greg Morris

I spent a great deal of time working on an asset commitment model using the Chande Trend Meter (CTM) and believe I have something worth sharing.  Tushar defines ranges for CTM based on the degree of trendiness and I have assigned Asset Commitment percentages to those pre-defined ranges.  Table A shows the asset commitment levels for the ranges used by CTM. Table A Chart A shows the Nasdaq in black, the CTM in blue and the digital asset commitment in green.  This chart is for the period that encompassed the bear market from 2007 – Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

"Believable" Misinformation Is a Danger to Long-Term Retirement Goals

by Greg Morris

Many investment "truths" seem to go unchallenged but are in fact, very clearly just myths.  Buy and hold investing is a good long-term strategy, economists are good at predicting the markets, diversification will protect you from losses, compounding is the eighth wonder of the world, missing the best days each year can be devastating, probability and risk are the same thing, and chasing performance will work; just to mention a few.  It is important to debunk these myths. Buy and hold is a proven strategy for the stock market. The 1976 Ibbotson Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence - 3

by Greg Morris

In the past two articles on Weight of the Evidence my goal was to show you how you can use Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a trend model.  I stated previously that my digital weight of the evidence also provides levels that define buying parameters, stop loss percentages, and asset commitment amounts (see this article).  In Weight of the Evidence -2 I showed that by exponentially smoothing CTM it greatly reduced its volatility and made it a bit more useable for a model.  From a ChartSchool article on CTM, Tushar provides his levels that offer degrees of Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Article Summaries: 5/2018 - 8/2018

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I have had as a technical analyst for 45 years; the good, the bad, and the ugly. You can think of my articles as sections in a book.  You can click on the headers for a link to the article Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence - 2

by Greg Morris

In my previous article called Weight of the Evidence (WoEv) I compared my Weight of the Evidence with Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM).  I also mentioned I was happy that Tushar had this indicator since I cannot divulge the exact details of my Weight of the Evidence.  A large difference between my WoEv and Tushar’s CTM is that I use market breadth AND price-based measures and Tushar only uses price-based measures.  At market tops (periods of distribution) I strongly believe breadth can offer an early warning to impending weakness in the markets.  This is because Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence

by Greg Morris

In my recent Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model series, I talked extensively about the Weight of the Evidence.  This is my measure to tell me what the market is doing based upon nine different technical measures made up of price, breadth, and relative strength (PBR, like the beer).  Tushar Chande introduced a substitute for your use with his Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a recent article.  This was a wonderful happening since I cannot divulge the exact details of my Weight of the Evidence, as it is still used to manage millions of dollars.  This means you have a Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Noise is Deafening!

by Greg Morris

Just in the course of a normal week, we are bombarded with information from sources such as the FED, television analysts, brokerage firm analysts, economists’ projections, newspapers, junk mail, neighbors, war reporters, fake news,  etc.  Making investment decisions without a plan or methodology is truly a gamble.  And to think that there are academic types who advocate that the markets are efficient, which means everyone has all the available information at the same time, and therefore cannot possibly get an advantage over anyone else is preposterous!   Then when Read More 

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