DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: Are Things As Bad As They're Going To Get?

by Carl Swenlin

Less than three months ago there was a great lament about how employers couldn’t fill job positions because of a shortage of job seekers. This week FedEx announced voluntary employee buyouts, presumably to reduce payroll. In view of this, I offer you the Swenlin Basic Economic Theory: Things get better and better, until they are as good as they’re going to get. Then they get worse and worse, until they are as bad as they’re going to get. Repeat cycle. If you have a kid headed for college to study economics, think how much money I just saved you. Seriously though, the BPI (Bullish Percent Read More 

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DP Bulletin: One Lone BUY Signal Remains on the Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

Today, the Dow finally logged its Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal. This signal was triggered when the 50-EMA crossed below the 200-EMA. The Scoreboards below are ugly. The remaining BUY signal will be gone on the final trading day of the month - I highly doubt the PMO will be able to find its way back above the signal in time to prevent it. Below are the new Scoreboards, along with the daily and weekly charts of $INDU. It's highly doubtful that Santa will get here in time Christmas. Read More 

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DP Alert: A Year Without a Santa Claus?

by Erin Swenlin

You might be chuckling at the title which pays homage to the Rankin/Bass stop-motion animated classic A Year Without a Santa Claus. In the show, it takes two elves, a little boy and a young reindeer to prove to a despondent Santa that everyone does indeed misses him and believe. Santa, of course, hopped right into his sleigh and took off. I thought maybe the FOMC would try to coax "Santa" out of hiding, but in a "humbug" move, it affirmed to the market that it was not planning on slowing down its rate hikes in the near future. Thus it appears that the market will Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market? Never Seen One.

by Carl Swenlin

The chart below shows the entire period during which I have been involved in stock market analysis, and, as you can see, the title of this article definitely does not apply to me. If a decline of -20% or more qualifies as a bear market, then I have experienced seven of them. Additionally, there were three periods which, while not qualifying as bear markets, were sufficiently unpleasant to qualify them for 'honorable mention.' I have identified the current decline with a question mark, because we won't know if it qualifies as a bear market until the the benchmark -20% decline is in Read More 

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Two EMA "Death Crosses" on NDX and SPX = LT Trend Model SELLs

by Erin Swenlin

I've always thought the moniker "death cross" was terribly dramatic (and I still do). However, this time around, it does seem ominous. The SPX lost its Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal, a signal that had been in place since early 2016. These signals don't come very often, so we should always take heed when they do arrive. Not only did we see those LTTM BUY signals disappear, we lost 3 out of 4 Short-Term PMO BUY signals. The Scoreboards are looking ugly.  Below are the daily charts of all four Scoreboard indexes. Today's turnaround was Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Still In Trading Range Despite Fireworks

by Carl Swenlin

There will probably be a lot of people mentioning that today there was a "Death Cross" on the S&P 500 chart, and this is important because a Death Cross means that the price index has entered a bear market. Specifically, on the $SPX chart (not shown) the 50-day simple moving average crossed down through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). I don't use SMAs because I believe exponential moving averages (EMAs) behave more rationally. And for signal generation and trading decisions I track SPY instead of $SPX, which can actually be traded. Also, like stocks, SPY is adjusted for Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: The Monkey Did It

by Carl Swenlin

I usually spend my days at my desk noodling on the computer, reading, and casually watching business television with the sound off. (My idea of retirement.) With no sound to distract/annoy me, the most dangerous part of the TV watching is the endless stream of headline banners that announce why the market is doing whatever it is doing at a given moment. The danger comes from my usual eye-rolling reaction to most of the headlines, a reaction which can be so severe as to nearly flip me over the back of my chair. Once in a while there is no doubt that a certain news item, like Fed Chair Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST PMO BUY Signals on all Four Scoreboards - ITTM BUY for Very Bullish Healthcare SPDR (XLV)

by Erin Swenlin

This is just a quick summary of the new DecisionPoint signals that came in. Yesterday, the SPX logged a new ST PMO BUY Signal on the "relief rally." Despite declines on the remaining indexes, they all managed to trigger new ST PMO BUY signals. I'm not looking at these new buy signals as the end of the correction; I suspect they will fail next week. Additionally, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) triggered a new IT Trend Model BUY signal.  I've annotated the charts for the OEX, DOW and NDX below so you can see the new PMO BUY signals. An important note Read More 

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DP Alert: Dovish Fed = Relief Rally + New PMO BUY Signal for SPX

by Erin Swenlin

In the midst of recording this morning's MarketWatchers LIVE show, the Fed Chairman Powell's remarks were released. They were dovish and the market rallied in relief. The rally was strong enough to pull the ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) upward and trigger a new BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to Read More 

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Rising Dollar Logs New PMO BUY Signal - IT Picture Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

The Dollar has been plugging along quietly in a gently rising trend channel, while the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has moved right along with it. A little over a week ago, the PMO crossed below its signal line and logged a PMO SELL signal. Today's rally saw an intraday high that hasn't been reached since early 2017, so it wasn't a surprise to see the PMO accelerate above its signal line for a new BUY signal. I'm liking this BUY signal. The PMO, although logging a recent SELL signal, is trending higher. Peaks have been steadily increasing Read More 

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