DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Afternoon Sell-Off - Indicators Oversold, Not at Extremes

by Erin Swenlin

Today's sell-offs (over 3% on the SPX , almost 4.5% on the Nasdaq and 3.79% drop on the Russell 2000) were deep and painful, but you don't need me to tell you that. I would like to be the bearer of good news, but I can't find much out there. The DP Scoreboards display the weakness in the short and intermediate terms. The Sector Scoreboard, underneath the large index Scoreboards, shows that defensive sectors are the only ones with IT Buy signals.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and Read More 

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DP Bulletin #1: Final Intermediate-Term BUY Signal Lost - Long Term Stays Bullish on All Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, after the market closed, the Dow saw its Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) on the weekly chart sink below its signal line, generating an IT PMO SELL signal. Today, insult was added to injury as a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal triggered. At this point, the only "green" left on the Scoreboards are the Long-Term BUY signals. The 20-EMA dropped below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA was well-above the 200-EMA. The IT Trend Model signal is Neutral. The PMO is falling fast, but hasn't reached oversold extremes. I suspect the 200-EMA will be tested once again. Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Yet? Waiting for Retest. Gold New BUY Signal.

by Carl Swenlin

Despite a great rally on Tuesday, a sharp decline on Thursday took it all back, and the market finished the week barely changed. This was an options expiration week, so I think that probably had something to do with it. As of last week, I was expecting some chop in preparation for a retest of last week's low. Well, we got the chop, but I think the retest is yet to come, probably next week. We usually anticipate that a retest will result in a completed bottom, but that may not be the case this time. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More 

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DP Alert: Sector Signal Scoreboard Pocked with New Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

A mere two weeks ago, the Sector Signal Scoreboard (2nd slide below) was all "green" as each sector was on IT Trend Model BUY signals. The DP Scoreboards below were completely green at the beginning of September. Today both are dotted with Neutral signals (and some SELL signals in the case of the DP Scoreboards below). Most importantly, the only three sectors holding their BUY signals? The defensive sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities. The market has topped and leadership has moved to defensive areas of the market. The correction is not likely over. Read More 

DecisionPoint

Irrational Exuberance? Yes - OEX Loses IT Trend Model BUY Despite Rally

by Erin Swenlin

This morning on MarketWatchers LIVE, Tom and I were very cautious regarding today's rally. John Murphy and Arthur Hill are bearish. Carl is undecided but erring on the side of caution. So it was somewhat surprising and cause for a chuckle to see and hear the ridiculously excited big network commentators trumpeting today's rally and calling the end of the correction. Digging into the numbers, I found that volume doesn't support their exuberance or hypothesis that a new market bottom is in. Looking at the DP Scoreboards and seeing the addition of yet another IT Trend Model Neutral Read More 

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Intermediate-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL on SPX! More Buy Signals Extinguished

by Erin Swenlin

I've been updating these Scoreboards frequently starting on October 5th. Three very important signal changes arrived Friday and today. We don't generally see many updates to the Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), but on Friday both the SPX and OEX followed the NDX and logged SELL signals. Now we have a IT Trend Model Neutral signal on the SPX. I was feeling somewhat safe this morning when I looked at the Swenlin Trading Oscillators and saw that on Friday they had ticked up. When I updated the chart today, I noted that both indicators are falling again. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Picking Bottoms

by Carl Swenlin

"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms."        -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day) To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be sure, it is a risky endeavor, but after Wednesday's bloodbath I suggested: For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens. A daily PMO bottom is not a foolproof signal Read More 

DecisionPoint

NDX IT Trend Model Neutral Signal - Climactic Breadth Readings Continue

by Erin Swenlin

The Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal generated today on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) replaced a May 9, 2018 BUY signal. It was another exhausting day as we watched the correction continue with prices free falling lower. Yesterday I pointed out the climactic breadth and VIX readings and suggesting a selling exhaustion was underway. I went out on a limb (which I hear cracking right now) and wrote that I'm looking for a bounce before the week ends. Breadth readings are still suggesting a selling exhaustion to me. Be aware, these are very short-term indicators so seeing a rally pop is Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Climactic Breadth Readings Could Signal Selling Exhaustion - ST Neutral on Dow

by Erin Swenlin

We had another change to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. The Short-Term Trend Model initiated a Neutral signal on the Dow (chart is below Scoreboards) when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while above the 50-EMA. Weakness and fear abound, but there could be some relief on the way given the very climactic breadth readings I'm seeing today in combination with the $VIX. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil Read More 

DecisionPoint

Where Is Support?

by Carl Swenlin

After a day like this, the first question I ask is where is support? That question is not fully answered on this daily chart, but there is something worth noting here. Volume for SPY was huge -- 248% of the 250-day average -- but SPY is a trading instrument and its volume doesn't necessarily represent the broad market. S&P 500 volume was also high, but only 138% of the average, and it is far below the volume spike of three weeks ago, when the market made its last all-time high. My point: I'm not sure that today's volume was sufficiently climactic to mark a bottom. Read More 

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