DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

TLT Looking More and More Bearish - PMO SELL Signal - IT and LT Head & Shoulders

by Erin Swenlin

There were some new developments on the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT) that are tipping the scales bearish. We were already noticing some problems for Bonds in general, but volatile trading had made it difficult to decipher. Today there is no denying the negative bias as both a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal and a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal triggered. The highly volatile trading range between $117.50 and $122.00 has made TLT an investment to avoid. We've seen multiple gaps and sadly many late Trend Model signals. The two bearish signals seem to be Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Is Another Parabolic Advance Beginning?

by Carl Swenlin

This week, as the market once again broke out of the cyclical bull market rising trend channel, it occurred to me that perhaps another parabolic advance was getting under way. On Wednesday I was a guest of Erin and Tom on MarketWatchers LIVE, and I gave a more detailed account of how my thinking developed on this matter. We don't have to search the data too deeply to give an example of what I mean -- the last parabolic began in late-2017 and ended early this year. Conveniently, we can compare the current upward curve with the last one, and we can see that the new curve is not very steep Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: DP Scoreboards All "Green" - Dollar at a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

The last time all four of the DecisionPoint Scoreboards were completely "green" (or on BUY signals in all three time frames as far as price trend and momentum/condition) was back on 11/6/2017. It lasted only ONE day when the SPX whipsawed back into a PMO SELL signal on 11/7. I think these green Scoreboards will last a bit longer than a day, but it does make one wonder if the markets are stretched or sentiment is too bullish. Carl was on MWL today talking about the possible formation of another parabolic price trend. You'll also note that the Sector Scoreboard is sporting all BUY signals Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Weekly PMO BUY Signal on Dow; PMO BUY Signals for OEX and SPX...NDX Lags

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the Dow finally saw its weekly PMO cross above its signal line and trigger a long awaited BUY signal. The SPX also added a new PMO BUY signal on its daily chart on Friday. Today, the OEX generated a ST PMO BUY signal. I had thought the NDX would come through with a PMO BUY signal of its own, but it just barely missed the crossover today. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: SPY New All-Time Highs; Crude New BUY Signal; Has Gold Bottomed?

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday SPY made new, all-time intraday and closing highs, exceeding the records set on Tuesday. The daily PMO has been very flat and holding at around +1 since the end of July. This summarizes the steady price rise during that period and does not present a problem. There is, however, a problem on the OBV panel in the form of a negative divergence. It is not a giant issue, but we will consider it later in this article. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500) Read More 

DecisionPoint

Is Oil Ready to Gush?

by Erin Swenlin

Today I was alerted to a new Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal on USO. This signal is triggered when the 5-EMA crosses above the 20-EMA. When I went to take a look at the chart, I noted some very bullish characteristics that I thought I'd share. You'll note on the chart below of USO and $WTIC that both have descending/falling wedges that executed yesterday. Today's price action was stagnant, but the trading all took place above the wedge. If you use a measurement system of this chart pattern, you'll note that the height of the pattern goes from $13.75 to about $15.25. If we add the Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Market Indicators Suggest Short-Term Weakness - PMO SELL for Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

We've now entered the longest bull market on record when counted from the 2009 lows to the highs of yesterday. While there are mixed opinions whether it will hold up much longer, our DP Scoreboards and intermediate-term indicators are still far too bullish to put me in the imminent bear market camp. Additionally, look closely at our Sector Signal Table below. Every sector is currently on a BUY signal in the intermediate and long terms. However, when I look at the shorter term, I do see weakness and likely problems for the next week or more.  Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Dow Recovers PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX's PMO is still in decline. The SPX and OEX have rising PMOs, but no short-term PMO BUY signals. However, the Dow has recaptured its PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The Dow may seem to be recovering more quickly, but honestly it didn't deteriorate as much as the SPX and OEX PMOs. This gave the Dow's PMO a smaller distance to close to a new BUY signal. I note on the daily chart below that price did manage to push above the February top, but close just about on it for a mediocre breakout. I didn't care for the fact that price fell back on the close. Although the OBV is Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Pushing New Highs, but Volume Not Impressive

by Carl Swenlin

On an options expiration week we normally expect low volatility, and that is what we got this week. Despite somewhat dramatic, but opposite, moves on Wednesday and Thursday, the SPY trading range for the week was a little over two percent, and the difference between the weekly closing high and low was a little over one percent. The moral is that options expiration week usually denies all options players, whether they are looking for a big move up or a big move down. It just runs out the clock. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Skinny Breakout Fails

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I said I expected to see new, all-time highs for SPY, and on Monday that expectation was fulfilled in a marginal way. While I didn't say I expected that the market would close higher this week, it was implied, but the market's low volume and lack of follow through on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday made Friday's pullback not unexpected. It was assumed that Turkey's currency crisis pulled the plug, but the technicals were looking for it as well. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition Read More 

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