DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Bulletin #1: Short-Term PMO BUY Signal Logged on Dow Industrials

by Erin Swenlin

All four Scoreboard indexes have PMO BUY signals as of today. The Dow was the laggard, but between Friday's and today's rallies, momentum has shifted enough to push the PMO over its signal line. While we do have a PMO BUY signal, I'm not impressed with the daily chart for the Dow. The declining tops trendline was not broken today so the bearish descending triangle remains intact.   Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin Helpful Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Strong Finish, but Where's the Love?

by Carl Swenlin

On Thursday the market recovered nicely from an early selloff, and today it had a strong finish. But in the market, volume equals love, and the short volume on Friday was barely a peck on the cheek. On my SPY chart I like to show, in addition to SPY volume, volume for the S&P 500, and the benchmark is the 250EMA of volume. In this case both gave a resounding "meh." Despite some interim excitement, the market was virtually unchanged for the week. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX Joins Dow with a New ST PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today the SPX joined the Dow with a new PMO SELL signal. If the correction continues much longer, the OEX and NDX will follow suit. Today's action left the SPX with a long tail that tested the purple rising bottoms trendline. This test was successful, but the breakdown and trading below the blue ST rising bottoms trendline is concerning. We're seeing the 200-EMA penetrated yet again. If the SPX is to avoid a bear market, it needs to rebound here or at the very least at the February low. It avoided a break below support at the February low back at the end of March. It's time for the Read More 

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DP Alert: Dow Logs PMO SELL Signal - ST and IT Negative Divergences! - ITTM Neutral for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the signal table below, the Dow logged a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. I've included the chart below with commentary. The other important news is two new negative divergences showing on the DP indicator charts for the short term and intermediate term! And, no surprise to most, Gold logged a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal. With the huge breakout in the Dollar and a near perfect negative correlation between Gold and the Dollar, this decline in Gold was telegraphed awhile ago. Read More 

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Monthly Charts Reveal Bearish Bias - Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil & Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

All of our monthly charts went "final" today so it is time for a review of the current signals and their implications. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards show BUY signals on all of the four major indexes and that is not changing today. However the DP Scoreboards don't necessarily reveal the current strength of those signals. One thing that is important to note, the Long-Term Trend Model signals are derived from the 50/200-EMA crossovers on the DAILY chart. I recommend you go read Carl's Weekly Wrap from Friday to understand the LT Trend Model signals. Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Back on BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my confidence, On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been flat, failing to confirm the rising trend from this month's price low. (Rising price is not being driven by rising volume.) Finally, volume contracted today as price was trying to break out, and XLY closed near today's low. Read More 

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DP Bulletin #3: NDX PMO Whipsaws Back to a BUY

by Erin Swenlin

Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so the NDX could see another whipsaw on the PMO back to a SELL signal. I'll send out another bulletin tomorrow if that is the case. Of note, is what could be a very large head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern executes (and I'd need to see a decisive 3% breakdown), best case is a minimum downside target Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: NDX Logs New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

All four DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes logged ST Trend Model SELL signals yesterday and now the NDX has added insult to injury with a new PMO SELL signal. This SELL signal was generated when the NDX Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line. Below is the daily chart for the NDX. I've pointed out both SELL signals. Looking from a distance at this chart, I think you could make a case for a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline would be considered sloping up, not down and shares with the longer-term rising bottoms line. The 200-EMA is critical support right now Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model SELL Signals on NDX, Dow, SPX & OEX

by Erin Swenlin

This is a bulletin to let you know that the DecisionPoint Short-Term Trend Model has generated new SELL signals for all four indexes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. After the sizable decline to finish off today, the 5-EMAs all tumbled below the 20-EMAs. The 20-EMAs were below the 50-EMA so it generated SELL signals rather than Neutral signals. If you haven't read yesterday's DecisionPoint blog article regarding the bearish bias of the markets right now, here is a link.  Helpful DecisionPoint Links: Read More 

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Short-Term Swenlin Trading Oscillator Divergence Could be a Serious Warning Sign

by Erin Swenlin

There was one indicator that gave us a very good warning sign just prior to the Jan/Feb correction. The same warning sign is flashing right now. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) have a breadth version and a volume version. When we see divergent tops on these indicators, bad things tend to happen.  These indicators topped and began moving lower out of overbought territory which is short-term bearish. However, what is more concerning is the negative divergence between the STO-B and STO-V. I only located one other time this year where this negative divergence occurred other than Read More 

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