DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: Monthly Charts Finalized

by Carl Swenlin

Monthly charts were finalized on Friday, so we can get an up-to-date assessment of the very long-term. On the SPY monthly chart below, note that the cyclical bull market up trend has taken price on a very wide departure from the secular bull market rising trend line. The monthly PMO topped earlier this year, creating a negative divergence against price, and this could be a precursor to more of a correction than we have already experienced. While a further correction is not inevitable, it could be accomplished by price simply moving sideways until it gets back to the secular trend line, as Read More 

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DP Alert: Dow and Materials (XLB) Log ITTM Neutral - Dollar & Oil Killing It!

by Erin Swenlin

Another day of decline after a head fake at the open when prices gapped up and rallied. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 never caught a break as they began their decline right out of the gate. These two indexes have shown great relative strength, but are now taking it on the chin. Remember when the Dow was leader of the pack? Well apparently it still is as more Scoreboards lose BUY signals. Looking at the other three indexes, ITTM Neutral signals are not out of the question. The IT Trend Model Neutral signal was activated when the 20-EMA Read More 

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DP Scoreboards Shout Short-Term Weakness

by Erin Swenlin

Today and yesterday saw four new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The NDX has now joined in on short-term weakness in price trend and condition. Our short-term market indicators are starting to get oversold, but they continue in their downward trend. I came into this week expecting the SPX to close lower and I stand by it. Today we got a nice bounce, but it seems reactionary, not foretelling. These signal changes suggest there might be more decline ahead. But how low could they go? The Swenlin Trading Oscillators have been Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Trying to Correct; Gold LT SELL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

The market has been turned back from the horizontal resistance drawn across the March top, but it has managed to stay above the support drawn across the May tops. However, there is still the mechanism of the bearish rising wedge pattern, which is reinforced by an OBV negative divergence, and the PMO SELL signal. This setup is not immutable, but, as it stands right now, the evidence is saying to look for more downside. Let's see how that might get. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents a succinct end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX and OEX Trigger PMO SELL Signals

by Erin Swenlin

We added two more SELL signals to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Both the SPX and OEX triggered Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. Apparently someone forgot to tell the NDX that it was time to relinquish BUY signals. However, maybe its hearing the whispers given it tumbled a bit farther today than both the SPX and OEX. As far as the SPX, today marked a failed test of the rising bottoms trendline, but managed a save, holding onto support at the May tops. The rising trend on momentum hasn't yet been broken, but unless we see a nice bounce tomorrow, it likely will be broken Read More 

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DP Alert: Dollar (UUP) PMO BUY Signal - Dow Loses Another BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday the Dow lost its PMO BUY signal and today it's lost its Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal. Looking at the NDX Scoreboard sitting next to the Dow Scoreboard, a bifurcated market between NDX and Dow. Both the NDX and Russell 2000 continue to set new all-time highs and yet the Dow is failing. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow First to Lose Its PMO BUY Signal - Will Others Follow?

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards nearly made it to "all green" as the NDX was the first to manage a PMO crossover on the weekly chart and the others seemed sure to follow until this recent pullback. To make matters worse, the Dow which had just managed a PMO BUY signal on its daily chart two weeks ago, lost it.  The new PMO BUY signal was triggered when the daily PMO crossed below its signal line. There's plenty to dislike about this chart. While NDX and Small-Caps enjoy new all-time highs, the Dow has floundered. Trading was below the 50-EMA the entire day and the OBV is beginning Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Still Strong

by Carl Swenlin

The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged by the close. Again, let me remind you that the very high SPX volume on Friday was associated with options expiration occurring near the end of the quarter. If there is any message there, it is buried under that avalanche. The Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Bearish Indicators - Gold Decouples from Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain bullish, except for intermediate-term PMO SELL signals. Those should be replaced by BUY signals soon as all four indexes have rising PMOs. In fact, the NDX already has the PMO positive crossover on its weekly chart, it just has to remain by the close on Friday when the chart goes final. The market is stalling at resistance and our short-term indicators are confirming that we may have to wait a few more trading days for the breakout. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More 

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Real Estate Sector SPDR (XLRE) Shows LT New Bullish Bias

by Erin Swenlin

I have alerts set on my ChartList of sector SPDRs that alert me to Trend Model and PMO signal changes (Check our Support area for directions on how to set these). Today the alarm triggered when the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) had a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. An LT Trend Model BUY signal is a 50-EMA positive crossover the 200-EMA. These signals don't happen often, so I try to keep my readers updated as soon as they arrive. This sector has enjoyed a great rally and rising trend. Consequently, the LT Trend Model BUY signal was triggered. As part of the DecisionPoint Read More 

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