DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Alert: Dow Logs PMO SELL Signal - ST and IT Negative Divergences! - ITTM Neutral for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the signal table below, the Dow logged a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. I've included the chart below with commentary. The other important news is two new negative divergences showing on the DP indicator charts for the short term and intermediate term! And, no surprise to most, Gold logged a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal. With the huge breakout in the Dollar and a near perfect negative correlation between Gold and the Dollar, this decline in Gold was telegraphed awhile ago. Read More 

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Monthly Charts Reveal Bearish Bias - Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil & Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

All of our monthly charts went "final" today so it is time for a review of the current signals and their implications. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards show BUY signals on all of the four major indexes and that is not changing today. However the DP Scoreboards don't necessarily reveal the current strength of those signals. One thing that is important to note, the Long-Term Trend Model signals are derived from the 50/200-EMA crossovers on the DAILY chart. I recommend you go read Carl's Weekly Wrap from Friday to understand the LT Trend Model signals. Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Back on BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my confidence, On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been flat, failing to confirm the rising trend from this month's price low. (Rising price is not being driven by rising volume.) Finally, volume contracted today as price was trying to break out, and XLY closed near today's low. Read More 

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DP Bulletin #3: NDX PMO Whipsaws Back to a BUY

by Erin Swenlin

Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so the NDX could see another whipsaw on the PMO back to a SELL signal. I'll send out another bulletin tomorrow if that is the case. Of note, is what could be a very large head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern executes (and I'd need to see a decisive 3% breakdown), best case is a minimum downside target Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: NDX Logs New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

All four DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes logged ST Trend Model SELL signals yesterday and now the NDX has added insult to injury with a new PMO SELL signal. This SELL signal was generated when the NDX Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line. Below is the daily chart for the NDX. I've pointed out both SELL signals. Looking from a distance at this chart, I think you could make a case for a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline would be considered sloping up, not down and shares with the longer-term rising bottoms line. The 200-EMA is critical support right now Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model SELL Signals on NDX, Dow, SPX & OEX

by Erin Swenlin

This is a bulletin to let you know that the DecisionPoint Short-Term Trend Model has generated new SELL signals for all four indexes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. After the sizable decline to finish off today, the 5-EMAs all tumbled below the 20-EMAs. The 20-EMAs were below the 50-EMA so it generated SELL signals rather than Neutral signals. If you haven't read yesterday's DecisionPoint blog article regarding the bearish bias of the markets right now, here is a link.  Helpful DecisionPoint Links: Read More 

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Short-Term Swenlin Trading Oscillator Divergence Could be a Serious Warning Sign

by Erin Swenlin

There was one indicator that gave us a very good warning sign just prior to the Jan/Feb correction. The same warning sign is flashing right now. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) have a breadth version and a volume version. When we see divergent tops on these indicators, bad things tend to happen.  These indicators topped and began moving lower out of overbought territory which is short-term bearish. However, what is more concerning is the negative divergence between the STO-B and STO-V. I only located one other time this year where this negative divergence occurred other than Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Technology Whipsaw

by Carl Swenlin

The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review, our Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) changes to BUY when the 20EMA crosses up through the 50EMA. The signal changes to NEUTRAL when a 20/50EMA downside crossover takes place above the 200EMA. If XLK rallies above the EMAs on Monday, a new BUY signal will be generated; however, the daily PMO Read More 

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Tech Sector (XLK) Clicks to IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, a new IT Trend Model BUY signal was added. Before this BUY signal, there were only two sectors on IT BUY signals and they were in somewhat defensive areas of the market, Utilities and Energy. It is good news to see this BUY signal back for the sector with the highest cap-weight and an aggressive area of the market. As I wrote yesterday, the market was short-term overbought and today's decline was likely the beginning of a small pullback. This new BUY signal suggests that the market should right itself in the intermediate term. Read More 

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DP Alert: Will Dollar Ever Breakout? - Market Short-Term Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

This week the DP Scoreboards turned short-term bullish. Unfortunately, I suspect this breakout won't hold long if the short-term indicators continue to stretch into very overbought territory. Although the Scoreboards show intermediate-term neutral to bearish, the intermediate-term market indicators suggest we likely have seen the lows for the correction and may very well side-step a bear market. The IT Trend Model signals on the Scoreboards is determined by 20/50-EMA crossovers, so it will take some more time to see those crossovers which is why the ITBM and ITVM indicator set is so useful Read More 

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