DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

Healthcare Sector Feeling Better

by Erin Swenlin

Tom Bowley and I have been talking on MarketWatchers LIVE about sector rotation and how the healthcare sector is getting more "healthy". Today I got confirmation that this sector is back in favor. A PMO BUY signal was generated on both the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and on the equal-weight Healthcare ETF (RYH).   After enjoying Julius de Kempenaer's presentation on yesterday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, I was inspired to do a short-term Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) of the sector SPDRs. Tune in on Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show and I'll show you how easy it Read More 

DecisionPoint

New PMO SELL Signal on Small-Cap ETFs, IJR and IWM

by Erin Swenlin

The short-term rally in large-cap indexes like the SPX, OEX and INDU was not contagious for the S&P 600 or Russell 2000. Below I've annotated their associated ETFs, IJR and IWM to show you the new PMO SELL signals. Although these SELL signals arrived today, a look at the charts suggests that these signals will whipsaw back to BUY signals. You'll note on both IJR and IWM that the PMOs are overbought. Generally PMO SELL signals in overbought territory tend to be more successful in calling a decline than signals that arrive in oversold territory. That being said, I don't believe Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Is the Rally Exhausted? - PMO BUY Signal on Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

Teflon rally, perma-rally, overbought rally, irrational exuberancewhatever you call it, our indicators are suggesting at a least pause in the action, if not a pullback. Looking at the DP Scoreboards, we see all green arrows (buy signals) except for the IT PMO signal on the NDX. Although the NDX's weekly PMO is rising, the margin remains somewhat wide between it and its signal line as you can see in the weekly chart of the NDX below. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Parabolic Neutralized

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I identified a short-term parabolic advance, a pattern in which price advances in an ever-steepening upward curve. Typically parabolics become too steep and they collapse. In this case price moved sideways through the curve, effectively neutralizing the bearish implications of the formation. We currently have a small rising flag formed by this week's price bars, which is bullish, but we need to look at the broader picture. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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Put/Call Ratios At Simultaneous Lows - Bearish for the Market

by Erin Swenlin

A MarketWatchers LIVE viewer emailed me today and suggested I revisit the Put/Call Ratio chart. Upon recommendation, I did just that and was glad that he pointed it out to me so that I could point it out to you. I'll be talking about it in more detail during tomorrow's MarketWatchers LIVE show, so be sure to join Tom and I at 12:00p - 1:30p EST or catch the latest episode on our webinars page. I really didn't have to update the annotations here because in an article I wrote in December 2016 pointed out the same configuration. Typically when these ratios reach Read More 

DecisionPoint

Gold Narrowly Avoids IT Trend Model Neutral but Not Out of the Woods

by Erin Swenlin

Carl and I have been watching the Gold chart carefully for a likely Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral Signal. However, with the rally of the last two days, both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have slowed their descent. A negative 20/50-EMA crossover will trigger that ITTM Neutral signal. Why not a SELL signal? If the 50-EMA is still above the 200-EMA, we're looking at a LT bullish trend and we choose to move to a neutral signal (cash or fully hedged) rather than make a bearish short during a bullish LT trend. We generally don't see many gaps on Gold, but Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Market Rally Pop, No Follow-Through

by Erin Swenlin

No changes to the DP Scoreboards today, but you can see that every signal is a BUY signal except the IT PMO signal on the NDX. Check out my ChartWatchers article to learn more about why that is the case. Ultra-short-term indicators had pointed to a possible "rally pop" today, which we received on the open. However, there wasn't any follow-through. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Impervious Rally

by Carl Swenlin

I awoke Monday morning to news of the outrage that had taken place in Las Vegas the night before, and I experienced the now all-to-familiar feelings of weariness at the state of the world. There has been enough rehash of this terrible event, and my purpose of mentioning it was not further intrude on your peace of mind. There is a lesson to be learned here about how the market reacts to catastrophic events. Many of the financial commentators were truly amazed that the market didn't seem to be fazed by the horror that had transpired. In fact, the market rallied every day except Friday. The Read More 

DecisionPoint

PMO BUY Signal on NDX Confirms Breakout - Commodities LT BUY - TLT IT Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

It took the NDX two weeks to a month more to update its Short-Term PMO to a BUY signal in comparison to its peers. The dates underneath the signals on the Scoreboard tell the story of a difficult decline and then rally run for the NDX and technology in general. Two more interesting signals came in today. GSG, the Commodities iShares ETF logged a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. Additionally, TLT triggered a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal. The NDX recently logged a ST Trend Model BUY signal (9/29) and today's PMO BUY signal confirms the price trend and Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Indicator Spotlight: McClellan Summation Index Overbought and Rising on Major Indexes

by Erin Swenlin

Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. Even though it is called a Summation Index, the indicator is really an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line. The DecisionPoint Market Indicator ChartPack includes a ChartList of the McClellan Oscillator/Summation Index for the major indexes (NYSE, NASDAQ, NDX, SPX, OEX Read More 

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