SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37.
This week is the September option expiration which has a bullish bias 63% of the time. Yesterday, we said “the SPX was higher five days in a row going into last Friday; it was higher at least once within the next five days 18 of the last 18 times” (new higher high today, bingo). The bottom window is the “3 day average of the TRIN” and readings below .8 can lead to short term highs and today’s close came in at .73. Time is running out to the upside; the dilemma remains, what is the high day?
The bottom window is the 3 MA of the Tick/Trin ratio. It has been a short term bearish sign for the market when this ratio reaches +300 range (it stands at -130.99 today). Also the market has been down 6 days in a row going into September 7 and the market has been lower 10 of 12 times (83%) on average of 3% over the next 30 days. Therefore it would make since if market does bounce to look for a short position. The 3 MA of the Tick/TRIN ratio (bottom chart) could produce the next signal if +300 range is reached.
The chart above is the GDX New Highs-New lows percent (GDXHLP). The sell off in mid August produced a “Selling Climax” that saw 70% of the stock in GDX hit new low. The last two times that happened, (back in 2015 and 2016) the market saw a re-test, then a worthwhile rally that went above their previous high. The previous high in the current setup is the 19.50 range and that would represent the minimum target. We have other studies that a target to 26.00 range is possible. There is a cycle high due in November (mid term election?) and we'll see what happens there. Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
