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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

Stubborn Weekly Momentum SELL Signals SPX and Dow

by Erin Swenlin

My expectation for week end was two new weekly PMO BUY signals. Instead we got only one. The SPX missed its weekly PMO BUY signal by hair or technically, by two one-hundredths of a point. The OEX managed to squeak its out and the Dow is finally seeing a possible weekly PMO bottom. The NDX is just sitting back and waiting for everyone to catch up. It's been on a weekly PMO BUY signal since mid-June. The OEX is attempting a breakout above resistance from the February/March top. It managed to hurdle the 2nd quarter top last week but pulled back slightly to close just Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Big Start To Earnings Comes Out Flat

by Greg Schnell

The US earnings season is in full bloom with major corporate earnings announcements flowing. The earnings have come out just fine, but it seems investors had already figured that out. This week the market is flat with a doji candle. What brings this doji to my attention is that it showed up while we were trying to make a convincing break above 2800.  There has been a lot of talk about the FANG leadership and the heavy weighting they have on the index. The bottom line is the NASDAQ 100 ended the week with a slight negative which is hardly the resounding Read More 

ChartWatchers

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Is Still Testing Overhead Resistance

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, July 19th at 1:46pm ET. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) forming a major bottoming pattern that started six years ago (2012). Its monthly MACD lines (bottom box) are at the most positive reading in ten years. That favors an eventual upside breakout. [A decisive upside breakout would also break a falling trendline going back more than three decades]. Since May, however, the TNX has been pulling back. The chart below shows one of the reasons why. The Read More 

ChartWatchers

Two Key Sectors Move from Laggards to Leaders

by Arthur Hill

The Financials SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) weighed on the broader market the first six months of the year, but perked up in July and started to show some upside leadership. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for the ten sector SPDRs from December 29th to June 29th, the first six months of 2018. Only three sectors stand out: the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (red), the Technology SPDR (green) and the Energy SPDR (black). The rest were either fractionally higher or down. Notice that the Financials SPDR (blue) and Industrials SPDR (magenta) were down 3.97% and 4.58% Read More 

ChartWatchers

Fresh Trading Opportunities as Earnings Season Shifts into High Gear

by John Hopkins

Traders have been waiting patiently for Q2 earnings season to begin and now they need to wait no longer. Already we've heard from some of the largest banks in the world and on Tuesday we heard from EBAY, who came up short and then Thursday from one of the largest Market Cap tech companies, Microsoft, who exceeded expectations.   To me the market is at its finest when companies that come up short of expectations are punished while those that meet/beat expectations are rewarded, which is the way it should be. We can see this in the two charts Read More 

ChartWatchers

Why All The Talk About The Yield Curve Flattening?

by Greg Schnell

StockCharts.com has a nice Dynamic Yield Curve tool that anyone can use. It's extremely friendly. As we roll through the pictures in this article, notice the date in the upper left corner of the yellow box. The red vertical line on the yellow background on the right side shows it in the context of the stock market. Here is a snapshot of the tool on July 12, 2016. In the picture above, we can see the line tilted sharply higher. The black shading is the yield each of the bond maturity dates have travelled and the red is the line at the snapshot in time.  About 2% between Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Trading Strategy That Makes Money

by Tom Bowley

Let's first talk about a trading strategy that doesn't work. I steer clear of companies that struggle to meet Wall Street expectations and there's a very simple reason why.  Management helps Wall Street set their expectations.  So when companies miss their targets, it's essentially a confession by management that they could not deliver on their promise.  They weren't capable of executing.  Let me give you a perfect example of what I avoid. PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT). Here's a company that missed its earnings expectation for the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Checking out the land down under on a Relative Rotation Graph

by Julius de Kempenaer

On the Relative Rotation Graph above I have grouped a selection of world equity market indices, mainly some big regions, and put them against the Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VTWSX) as the benchmark. What immediately grabs our attention, or at least mine is the fact that this selection is clearly split between positive (Leading) and negative (Lagging). The universe The universe on the RRG is found in the table below I have collected a number of ticker symbols for important international equity markets Read More 

ChartWatchers

Health Care SPDR Achieves Bullish Breakout

by John Murphy

On a day when stocks are rising, and all eleven market sectors are in the black, healthcare is the standout performer. This chart shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) rising to the highest level since the middle of March. The bottom box shows the XLV/SPX ratio rising to the highest level since late April. The XLV has been rising faster than the SPX since the start of May. The XLV now appears to be on the verge of exceeding its March intra-day high at 86.23. Biotechs are the main driving force behind today's healthcare surge. Read More 

ChartWatchers

Profiting from Earnings Reports

by John Hopkins

The market has been in stall mode for quite some time now. Even though the S&P perked up some on Friday it's still hanging out near levels seen in early January, going nowhere fast.   At the same time the market has had all kinds of reasons to totally collapse; tariff wars, Fed tightening, rising US dollar, to name a few. Yet the S&P is back above all key technical levels, waiting for any bit of good news to move it into high gear. And where might that good news come from? Earnings.   For sure there's actually no way of telling Read More 

ChartWatchers

Finding Chart Breakouts with Momentum

by Erin Swenlin

I've presented my favorite PMO scan numerous times during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but also in articles. Here's a link to my article on that scan. However today I wanted to present my "Chart Breakouts" scan. I use this scan during the MarketWatchers LIVE show to find stocks or ETFs that are just beginning to breakout and also picking up momentum. Below is the CandleGlance of the chart breakouts I presented in today's show. Not all of these are great, but you can see that most have broken declining tops trendlines or above very short-term resistance. Read More 

ChartWatchers

The BIG picture in ONE picture

by Julius de Kempenaer

Relative Rotation Graphs® originally emerged out of my work on sector (rotation) analysis while employed as a sell-side analyst providing services to institutional clients. Shortly after the first introduction as a tool to visualize sector-rotation a lot of other possibilities to use RRGs sprung to mind. One of the first ideas was to use a Relative Rotation Graph at the highest level of an investor's decision tree, Asset Allocation. The first decision someone has to make whether he (or she) wants to invest or stay with a savings account. But once the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Historic High on NAAIM Exposure - NDX Scoreboard All Buy Signals

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the weekly charts went "final". With that finalization, the NDX which had been carrying a positive Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover throughout the week, finally posted the IT PMO BUY signal on its DP Scoreboard. Additionally, sentiment charts were very interesting this week. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) posted the 3rd highest market exposure reading since it started in 2006 and put/call ratios are at multi-year lows. High readings on NAAIM suggests excessive bullishness. I've annotated the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Some Consumer Staples Stocks Start Hitting Scans

by Greg Schnell

I ran some scans this morning looking for some new breakouts to 1-year highs. With the market pushing up for the last month, these food companies are starting to accelerate. First, Archer Daniels Midland is breaking out to new three year highs. Pinnacle Foods is breaking out above prior year highs. Nomad Foods (NOMD) has a nice chart that looks like it is starting to reaccelerate. If you are looking to diversify into the unloved Consumer Staples sector, these names have nice setups. I host a Read More 

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