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Ten-Year Treasury Yield Is Still Testing Overhead Resistance

by John Murphy

The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) forming a major bottoming pattern that started six years ago (2012). Its monthly MACD lines (bottom box) are at the most positive reading in ten years. That favors an eventual upside breakout. [A decisive upside breakout would also break a falling trendline going back more than three decades]. Since May  Read More

Two Key Sectors Move from Laggards to Leaders

by Arthur Hill

The Financials SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) weighed on the broader market the first six months of the year, but perked up in July and started to show some upside leadership. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for the ten sector SPDRs from December 29th to June 29th, the first six months of 2018. Only three sectors stand out: the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (red), the  Read More

Fresh Trading Opportunities as Earnings Season Shifts into High Gear

by John Hopkins

Traders have been waiting patiently for Q2 earnings season to begin and now they need to wait no longer. Already we've heard from some of the largest banks in the world and on Tuesday we heard from EBAY, who came up short and then Thursday from one of the largest Market Cap tech companies, Microsoft, who exceeded expectations.   To me the market is at its finest when companies that come up  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Dull Options Expiration Week; Next Week May Be More Exciting

by Carl Swenlin

I normally expect options expiration week to be dull, and with this week's range of less than one percent, I was not disappointed. I was also looking for a short-term pullback, but that did not materialize (probably because of options expiration); however, our array of indicators say that a pullback is still a strong possibility for next week. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents  Read More

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CHART ANALYSIS STILL FAVORS A HIGHER TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS HAVE HELD THE TNX BACK

by John Murphy

THE MAJOR TREND STILL FAVORS HIGHER BOND YIELDS Yesterday's message showed the 7-10 Year T-bond iShares (IEF) testing important overhead resistance at its spring highs and 200-day moving average, and the impact bond direction usually has on rate-sensitive sectors like financials, utilities, and REITS. Rising rates usually favor financials while  Read More

Your Dashboard to Navigating the Markets - ChartPack Update #20 (Q2, 2018)

by Gatis Roze

There's a legendary tale in automobile circles how in the 1990s the executives at General  Motors got their design engineers to focus on what was most important.  They wanted to erase all their preconceived notions and assumptions about building cars.  They blindfolded all the engineers and lead them into a room where they'd stashed a borrowed a Lamborghini Countach.  The  Read More

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Weekly Market Review and Outlook (with Video) - A Changing of the Guard?

by Arthur Hill

Weekly Performance Review. Elevator Down and Stairs Up. The Big Four are in Sync. A Changing of the Guard? Big Wedges Remain for XLI and XLF. ITB and XHB Firm at Key Retracements. What is the Deal with Bonds? Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. There is an old saying on Wall Street that stocks take the elevator down and the stairs up. This suggests that declines are often sharp and swift  Read More

VF Corp (VFC) Sports New Highs

by Greg Schnell

VF Corp is a large cap stock with a wide brand portfolio. It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine at least one of their brands are in every household in North America. With this vast product portfolio and a hot jobs market with high employment, consumers could be stepping up to buy products. This could be a great time to get onboard with back to school, Thanksgiving and the  Read More

7/19 MWL Recap - Guest Co-Host Julius de Kempenaer - "What Would You Do?"

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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TREASURY PRICES ARE TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- RISING BOND PRICES ARE BOOSTING UTILITIES AND REITS AT THE EXPENSE OF FINANCIALS

by John Murphy

BOND ETF IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE Treasury bond prices have been climbing since the middle of May. And they've reached an important chart point. Chart 1 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF) in the process of testing overhead resistance along their early April/late May peaks, and their 200-day moving average. The 20-year T-bond ETF  Read More

Financials Appear Poised To Regain Their Leadership

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, July 18, 2018 We were mostly higher on Wednesday, although gains were slight.  One exception was the NASDAQ, which finished less than one point lower.  Otherwise, we saw green.  Despite mostly higher prices, leadership really came from just two sectors - financials (XLF, +1.60%) and industrials (XLI, +1.10%).  It's been awhile since we talked  Read More

Is Walt Disney (DIS) ready to rumble?

by Julius de Kempenaer

While working on my previous article, one stock, in particular, drew my attention. I only casually addressed it in that article as I wanted to do a more extensive review separately. We are talking about Walt Disney (DIS). In this post, I will try to build a longer-term picture with the evidence piling up to support a big move. The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the stock in isolation  Read More

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Using the %Above Indicators for Signals and Sector Rankings

by Arthur Hill

A Breadth Burst for the Finance Sector. Industrials and Finance Lead July Surge. Ranking by %Above 200-day EMA. Finding these Symbols. Signals from %Above Indicators The percentage of stocks above the 20-day EMA is a short-term breadth indicator that measures participation. StockCharts calculates and publishes this indicator for the major stock indexes and sectors. We  Read More

DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators Back to Neutral - PMO SELL Signal for Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

The quick drop of short-term indicators is a case in point on how "oscillators must oscillate" and that overbought conditions in a strong bull market can unwind through consolidation and are therefore, not necessarily a precursor to doom and gloom. I've been writing about these indicators frequently over the past week and half and in each instance I have reiterated these concepts. At this time  Read More

7/18 MWL Recap - Guest Tom McClellan - Chart Breakouts!

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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Is Gold In A Bear Market or A Buying Opportunity?

by Martin Pring

Long-term trends rolling over to the downside A rising dollar does not help gold Gold Under-performing stocks is not a good thing.for gold Gold showing bear market characteristics Long-term trends rolling over to the downside The recent sell off in the price of gold has quite frankly surprised me. That's not because it has dropped in price, but more because of the  Read More

A Workaround for the Greg Morris Weight of Evidence Trading Model (the Chande Trend Meter).

by Tushar Chande

Greg Morris has written a wonderful series of posts on developing a trend-following system, essential reading for all serious traders.  In his most recent post on the subject, he summarizes the nine indicators used in the model, and shows the Morris Weight of Evidence (WOE)  Read More

A Momentum Divergence for the Regional Bank SPDR

by Arthur Hill

I do not use bullish and bearish divergences with momentum indicators very often because they usually form in the direction of the bigger trend. For example, most bearish divergences form in uptrends and most bullish divergences form in downtrends. I trade in the direction of the bigger trend and prefer to ignore such divergences. The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) fits my divergence criteria because  Read More

Consider This Materials Stock That Just Broke Out From Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern

by Tom Bowley

Special Note I will be on a short mini-vacation beginning Friday, July 20th.  Therefore, I will not be writing a Trading Places blog article that day.  I will be back on Monday, however, with my latest recap and thoughts on the stock market.  If you enjoy my blog, please subscribe at the bottom of this article by typing in your email address and clicking the green "Subscribe"  Read More

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Biotech ETFs Near New Highs, Fab Five Lead QQQ and Four Stock Setups

by Arthur Hill

Biotech ETFs Near New Highs Fab Five Lead QQQ Higher. SOXX Turns Up within Triangle. A Mean-Reversion Setup for Analog Devices. Two Inside Days for Cisco. A Flag Breakout for ICE. Perkin Elmer Perks Up. IBB and XBI Near New Highs The Biotech iShares (IBB) surged over 15% the last ten weeks and is on the verge of a new high. It has been a wild ride in 2018 with the ETF  Read More

Canada Makes A New High 2018-07-17 Video

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian stock market continues to inch its way to new highs. Amazingly, the oil stocks are holding up while oil falls. The Natural Gas stocks are holding up while Natural Gas falls. The gold stocks are holding up while Gold falls. The miners are holding up while industrial metals fall. So there is a lot of optimism trying to hold the stocks up, while waiting for the commodities to rally  Read More

7/17 MWL Recap - Trading Chart Patterns 2.0 (Bearish Patterns) - Correlation

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Materials Sector Picks Up Momentum

by Erin Swenlin

Today, both the Materials SPDR (XLB) and the equal-weight Materials ETF (RTM) posted new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signals. With talk of a trade war, many investors believe that the Materials sector could provide a decent hedge. I don't know if that is true, but I do know that the charts of these two Materials ETFs are looking promising. Looking at the daily chart, you can see that  Read More

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STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL CLIMBING -- NASDAQ HITS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL CLIMBING All three of the major U.S. stock indexes are building on last week's gains. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials moving further above 25K and nearing a test of its June high. The Dow is being led higher by Johnson & Johnson, DowDuPont, United Technologies, Microsoft, and Coca Cola. Chart 2 shows the  Read More

Why Gold Can Trade A Lot Lower

by Greg Schnell

With all the discussion of trade wars, recently the Chinese Yuan and the Japanese Yen have been falling. If a product is made in another country and the currency of that country drops, that makes the product less expensive to import for other countries. This is one method of dealing with trade imbalance. The total value of imported goods will drop bringing the trade imbalance closer in  Read More

Netflix Slammed After Missing Revenue And Subscriber Estimates

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, July 16, 2018 The Dow Jones saw buying late in Monday's session, pushing this index of giants into positive territory.  Leadership was clear.  Large money center banks performed well and JP MorganChase (JPM) was easily the best perfoming Dow Jones stock, gaining nearly 4%.  On the S&P 500, banks dominated as well with 5 of the top 8 performing  Read More

7/16 MWL Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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Healthcare Leads as Industrials and Finance Attempt Bounces

by Arthur Hill

SPY Extends Laborious Uptrend. Back in the Saddle. QQQ Maintains Leadership with New High. Healthcare Takes the Lead in July. Industrial Sector Pulls Ahead of Finance. Aerospace & Defense ETF Turns Up within Range. Mind the Gap in the Broker-Dealer iShares The major index ETFs were in long-term uptrends and short-term oversold at the end of June (see  Read More

Newest Dow Jones Component Leads Market Higher

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, July 13, 2018 The Dow Jones moved back above 25000 and the S&P 500 cleared 2800 for the first time since February 2nd on the backs of two unlikely heroes.  Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), the newest member of the Dow Jones,  and Walt Disney (DIS) gained 2.02% and 1.62%, respectively, to power the Dow Jones higher.  The latter made a significant  Read More

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 12

by Greg Morris

I'm going to return to discuss the final part of my Weight of the Evidence.  As a reminder this is a collection of price and breadth measures designed to tell me if the Nasdaq Composite is in an uptrend or not. You might want to review some of the past articles in this series as I'm going to try to not repeat unless necessary for clarity. The model uses a basket of technical measures to  Read More

NKE poised for a further rally and outperformance vs $INDU

by Julius de Kempenaer

Watching the Relative Rotation Graph of the 30 Dow stocks, there are a few observations that can be made. To begin with, there is a high concentration of stock inside the leading quadrant, including some mega-cap names like AAPL and MSFT and in the improving quadrant. The bottom half of the RRG holds only 8 stocks. Three in weakening and 5 inside lagging. It suggests that the current  Read More

Tactical Dilemma

by Bruce Fraser

While some major indexes have pushed to new high ground recently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) has remained a notable laggard. This creates a tactical dilemma for Wyckoffians. Is the weaker Dow Jones Industrial Average offering a 'tell' by lagging the broad market? or is the industrial (thirty) stock index being left behind by more dynamic indexes that are launching into fresh new  Read More

Manitowoc (MTW) Tries To Change Trend

by Greg Schnell

Manitowoc is trying to break the downward trend. There are a few bullish signals on the chart. The Full Stochastic is moving above 50. The PPO is kicking off a buy signal this week. There is a little four month trend across the highs on the chart that could quickly be broken with a sudden surge. Late July 2017 was a fabulous surge to get on board for a 40% move.  If you are missing clues  Read More

Commodities Get Smoked 2018-07-13 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities took it on the chin again this week, but the market messages could not be more confusing. While commodities fell hard, all the commodity countries made higher highs and higher lows on the week. The only commodity above the 10 WMA is oil. Copper fell again for the fifth week in a row. Gold and Silver stocks fell hard as the Yen broke its trend line. Let's get into the charts. Here is  Read More

7/13 MWL Recap - Inside the Lines - Watch List - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bonds Long-Term BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) for long bonds (TLT) generated a long-term BUY signal. How that happens is that the 50EMA crosses up through the 200EMA, an event more commonly known as the "Golden Cross," because big money is sure to follow (just kidding). When we say long-term, we mean months to years, but in the broader picture TLT appears to be moving sideways -- the LTTM SELL  Read More

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STOCKS ARE HAVING A POSITIVE WEEK -- THE DOW IS TRYING TO CLOSE OVER 25K

by John Murphy

S&P 500 IS CHALLENGING MARCH HIGH Stocks are ending the week on a positive note. The Nasdaq hit a new record high yesterday. Today's rally is being led by the Dow and S&P 500. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to end above 25000 for the first time in a month. Wednesday's pullback bounced off support at its 50-day average (blue line). The  Read More

Internet, Software Break Out To Lead NASDAQ To All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, July 12, 2018 Those looking for a bear market to develop were dealt a serious blow on Thursday as the NASDAQ forged to yet another all-time high.  The Russell 2000 was on the verge of doing so earlier this week as it reached an intraday all-time high.but small caps couldn't sustain the strength into the close.  The NASDAQ held it into the close, actually  Read More

NDX Snags a PMO BUY Signal - NDX ST Indicators Still Very Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX killed it today with a 1.69% move higher and logging a new all-time high. The other major Scoreboard indexes managed good numbers, but none above 1% or logging all-time highs. At issue with all of the Scoreboard indexes are extremely overbought short-term indicators. These conditions need to be relieved and this rally pop did nothing to help that cause. The good news is that overbought  Read More

Paypal (PYPL) Breaks Out After Consolidating For 6 Months

by Greg Schnell

Paypal (PYPL) has been consolidating for 6 months. and this week it is breaking out fresh new highs along with Visa And Mastercard. These are very supportive consolidation patterns. Anyone who bought the stock in the last 6 months is now in a profit position and less likely to be a seller. The SCTR shows Paypal outperforming 89% of the stocks. The full stochastic is holding above 80 which is  Read More