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When the Market is Choppy Search for the Best of the Best

by John Hopkins

The S&P hit its all time high of 2872 on January 26, less than 4 months. ago. Two weeks later, on February 9, it touched 2532, having fallen almost 12% before recovering some. But since then the bulls have struggled to make progress with the S&P pretty much at the same level it was in early February. Though the VIX, which hit 50 on February 6, has since pulled back into the 13's  Read More

Rising Mortgage Rates Are Weighing On Homebuilders

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Saturday, May 18th at 9:17am EST. The first page of today's Wall Street Journal carries the headline: "Era of Ultracheap Mortgages Ends as Rates Hit 7-Year High". The article goes on to point out that rising mortgage rates might make it harder for prospective home buyers to get mortgages or be able to  Read More

Rising Treasury Yields And Dollar Completely Change Investment Themes

by Tom Bowley

There's a raging bull market going on right now, but you might not realize it if you're stuck in the S&P 500.  Take a look at the chart below of the large cap benchmark S&P 500 and its small cap counterpart, the S&P Small Cap 600: The resumption of the bull market has taken shape in the form of small caps.  I fully expect that the rest of the market will follow suit  Read More

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MORTGAGE RATES HIT A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH ALONG WITH TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- RISING MORTGAGE RATES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SELLING OF HOMEBUILDING STOCKS

by John Murphy

RISING MORTGAGE RATES ARE WEIGHING ON HOMEBUILDERS The first page of today's Wall Street Journal carries the headline: "Era of Ultracheap Mortgages Ends as Rates Hit 7-Year HIgh". The article goes on to point out that rising mortgage rates might make it harder for prospective home buyers to get mortgages or be able to afford them. And that could discourage homebuying, or at least  Read More

Lumber Is Soaring - Timber?

by Greg Schnell

The continuous contract chart of $LUMBER has been on a tear recently. This week the price was almost $200 above the 40-week moving average. With a futures price of $650, that is 30% above the 40-week moving average!  While new highs are typically followed by new highs, this chart is clearly in blue-moon territory or rarified air.  StockCharts has $LUMBER data going back to  Read More

Beat the Energy sector by avoiding XOM & CVX

by Julius de Kempenaer

In the previous RRG blog, I introduced the availability of pre-populated groups holding individual equities for each of the ten S&P sectors. This addition makes it much easier for users of the Relative Rotation Graph tool on Stockcharts.com to drill down to the individual equity level from asset class and/or sector level. In this article, I want to grab the bull by the horns and zoom in on  Read More

Small-caps Lead, but Mid-caps and Large-caps Lack Leadership

by Arthur Hill

Stocks recording new 52-week highs are the leaders and a key component to broad market strength. Small-caps are doing their part with plenty of new highs, but large-caps and mid-caps are lagging in this category. The S&P Small-Cap 600 moved to a new 52-week high this week and is leading the major stock indexes. In contrast, the S&P 500 is 5.7% below its January high and the  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bullish Flag Forming

by Carl Swenlin

Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the entire week was calm, as price worked sideways into a flag formation. Volume for the last two  Read More

5/18 MWL Recap: How to Customize ChartStyles and Your Homepage - Sentiment Update (Bearish)

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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Steady As She Goes: Several Indicators Say The Market Is Headed Higher

by Martin Pring

Volume is offering a mixed picture Last week I pointed out that several short-term indicators, including breadth and net new high indicators, were still pointing north. One area that was not showing any strength of note was volume, in the form of the PVO for the NYSE. Chart 1 shows that this indicator, had broken to the upside, but is struggling to maintain  Read More

Small-Caps Leading the Way - Indicators for $SML Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Small-cap stocks and indexes are quite healthy, far more than the large-cap indexes which are lagging behind. During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show and in my Wednesday "DP Alert" blog  Read More

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Checks At Prior Highs

by Greg Schnell

The Gambling industry group has been performing well as of late. This week the chart of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is attempting to break to new highs. Technically, the stock is performing well. The SCTR is above 75, and the Relative Strength in purple shows LVS outperforming the $SPX. The recent consolidation since the beginning of the year looks like it is just setting up for the next leg  Read More

Teach Your Young Investors! Here's How And Why You'll Both Benefit

by Gatis Roze

This is personal. I've spent a lifetime learning how to make consistent profits in the investing arena. Yes, the stock markets have been good to me. They've allowed me to stay healthy by learning to manage my stress and they've also allowed me to enjoy an extremely comfortable lifestyle. Ironically, these were not my real objectives. As I said in our  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - New Sector and Industry Group Leaders

by Arthur Hill

The Mother of all Double Bottoms. The Shifting Relationship between Stocks and Bonds. S&P SmallCap iShares Hit New High. Small-caps Lead Breadth Indicators. S&P 500 Pauses Near Breakout Zone. Materials and Industrials Show Upside Leadership. XLI and XLB Bid to End 2018 Corrections. XLF Forms High and Tight Flag. Treasury Yields Hit New Highs. This Week in Art's Charts (IBB, XME, KRE).  Read More

Energy Has All Guns Blazing, Leads Bifurcated Market

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, May 17, 2018 There's a new sheriff on Wall Street and it's the energy ETF (XLE, +1.51%).  Its SCTR has soared to 97.1 with the second best SCTR (XLK - technology ETF) at 86.8.  The distance between the two is widening.  The XLE not only led the action yesterday, but it is also the sector leader over the past week, month, three months and six  Read More

Beat the Energy sector by avoiding XOM & CVX

by Julius de Kempenaer

In the previous RRG blog, I introduced the availability of pre-populated groups holding individual equities for each of the ten S&P sectors. This addition makes it much easier for users of the Relative Rotation Graph tool on Stockcharts.com to drill down to the individual equity level from asset class and/or sector level. In this article, I want to grab the bull by the horns and zoom in on  Read More

DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend Model BUY signals was March 13th. This could actually be considered worrisome since it was shortly  Read More

5/17 MWL Recap - Julius de Kempenaer on Energy - Correlation and Life Insurance

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Correlation Suggests This Financial Group Is About To Explode Higher, Get In Early

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, May 16, 2018 We saw another advance on Wall Street on Wednesday as key indices continue to clear important hurdles.  Perhaps the most significant yesterday was the Russell 2000, which ended its bullish continuation pattern as expected - with a bullish breakout to the upside: It's never a bad thing to see the more aggressive small caps leading the market to the  Read More

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Metals, Mining and Steel Lead in May - Plus Copper, COPX and 4 Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Materials Sector Leads in May. Metals & Mining SPDR Breaks Out of Consolidation. Steel Dynamics, Allegheny and Reliant Lead Group. The Long Correction in Copper. Copper Miners ETF Challenges Resistance. Continuous Commodity Contracts are Mixed. Stocks to Watch: ADSK, CA, HPE, HCA. The EW Technology ETF, EW Industrials ETF and EW Materials ETF are the leading sectors this month. The  Read More

5/16 MWL Recap - Dan Russo of Chaikin Analytics - Sector Rotation Analysis

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

DP Alert: Short-Term Weakness Should Clear Soon - $90/Barrel Not Out of the Questiorm

by Erin Swenlin

There still may be some growing pains to endure, but seeing Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals beginning to populate the DP Scoreboards for the first time since March. The Dow should be joining the ITTM BUY signal party very soon. I was surprised it didn't trigger today, but apparently the +0.25% rally wasn't quite enough. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an  Read More

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RETAIL SPDR JUMPS TO A FOUR-MONTH HIGH AND HAS BECOME A NEW MARKET LEADER -- RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE MACYS, UNDER ARMOUR, AND NIKE

by John Murphy

S&P RETAIL SPDR GOES FROM LAGGARD TO LEADER A strong April retail report yesterday was credited with helping push bond yields to the highest level in seven years. That's because it showed strong consumer spending which is two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Retail stocks must have gotten the message because they're one of today's strongest groups. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the  Read More

These Two Materials Stocks are Looking to Lead

by Arthur Hill

The Materials SPDR (XLB) is having a good month with a 4+ percent gain so far in May. Within the sector, I am seeing some strength in two big chemical stocks, Air Products (APD) and Eastman Chemical (EMN).   Before looking at the charts, note that both are above their rising 200-day EMAs, and their 50-day EMAs are above their 200-day EMAs. APD hit a new high in January, while EMN hit  Read More

The Four Decade-Long Downtrend In Interest Rates Is Over And This Is What It Means

by Tom Bowley

Reminder If you like my daily Trading Places blog articles and you haven't done so already, please subscribe below.  It's a great feature that StockCharts.com provides for all of the blogs here, and it's FREE and easy.  Simply scroll to the bottom of this article (or any other blog author's article), type in your email address and hit the "Subscribe" button.  Read More

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Highlights from Tuesday's Show (On Trend)

by Arthur Hill

Ranking Sectors by High-Low Percent. Sector SPDR Chart Analysis (big wedges). Oil and Energy-Related ETFs Continue to Work. 10-yr T-Yield Turns Back Up. Winners and Losers in Rising Rate Environment. Stocks: TSLA, DHR, NKE, ROST, SYK, UNH. Today's commentary and charts show some highlights from "On Trend", the StockChartsTV show  Read More

DP Bulletin #2: OEX Adds IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Another Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal arrived on the OEX Scoreboard. The Dow is very close to the same signal. For more information, I refer you to yesterday's article about the SPX IT Trend Model BUY signal. My analysis remains the  Read More

5/15 MWL Recap - Lifecycle of a DecisionPoint Trade Workshop - Drilling Down

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO SEVEN-YEAR HIGH -- REGIONAL BANKS GAIN ON HIGHER YIELDS

by John Murphy

TEN-YEAR TREASURY REACHES 3.08% The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points today to 3.08% which pushed it above its late 2013 peak near 3.03%. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the TNX now trading at the highest level since the summer of 2011. That's nearly seven years ago. From a charting standpoint, that upside breakout appears to have completed a major bottoming formation in  Read More

Four Days From A Buy Signal In Gold?

by Greg Schnell

The Gold chart gapped below the 200 DMA again today. This is the fourth time in the last year. However, look at the trend after the gap down below the green moving average line. Approximately one week later, Gold reversed and started a long up trend in the three previous cases. If that is going to work again, we should see a bottom formation early next week. Below is the Bullish Percent Index  Read More

Transports Fail Again At Resistance, Watch Them Closely

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, May 14, 2018 It was a day of bifurcated action, although the Dow Jones did manage to close higher for the 8th consecutive trading session, the longest such streak in 2018.  One look at sector performance, however, illustrates the mixed action.  Four sectors finished higher while five finished lower.  On the positive side, energy (XLE, +0.69%) and  Read More

DP Bulletin #1: SPX Generates a New Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The SPX is the 2nd of the four DP Scoreboard indexes to trigger a new IT Trend Model BUY signal. This signal replaces a late March Neutral signal. I've added the OEX and Dow charts below the SPX so you can see how close they are to triggering IT Trend Model BUY signals as well. An IT Trend Model BUY signal is triggered when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA. We haven't seen the 20-EMA above  Read More

5/14 MWL Recap - Guest Co-Host Bruce Fraser - Monday Set-Ups - Wyckoff Power Charting - DP Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Pfizer Surges within Consolidation

by Arthur Hill

The healthcare sector is coming alive on Monday and leading the broader market. As with the S&P 500, this sector struggled in 2018 and the Health Care SPDR (XLV) is up around 1.5% year-to-date. SPY, for reference, is up almost 3% this year.  The chart below shows Pfizer (PFE) with a steady uptrend until January and an erratic range since late January. The range started with a sharp  Read More

New pre-populated universes for Relative Rotation Graphs

by Julius de Kempenaer

If you have ever watched one of the webinars or Market Watchers Live shows that I have done here at Stockcharts.com, you may have seen me use Relative Rotation Graphs holding individual stocks and compare them to their sector benchmark. After each appearance, I always got a few questions on how to do that and in 2015 I wrote an  Read More

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Smaller Biotechs are Outperforming Larger Biotechs (IBB, XBI and XLV)

by Arthur Hill

Biotechs Perk Up. Average-Cap XBI versus Large-cap IBB. IBB Surges off Support. XBI Holds Above Support. Health Care SPDR Bounces off Retracement Zone. Biotechs showed some upside leadership with a big surge last week, most of which occurred on Friday. This group has been lagging the market in 2018, but the Biotech iShares (IBB) is bouncing off a support zone and the Biotech SPDR (XBI) is  Read More

Biotechs Break To Six Week High As Healthcare Advances; Biotechs Poised To Lead Again

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, May 11, 2018 Considering the gains that the bulls enjoyed earlier in the week, Friday's end-of-day numbers weren't too shabby.  Only the NASDAQ (-2.09 points) lost ground.  Over the six prior sessions, the NASDAQ moved from its intraday low on May 3rd of 6991 to Friday's close at 7403.  That's a huge rally so losing 2 points doesn't seem like a  Read More

Battle Royale Sets Up For Commodities 2018-05-11

by Greg Schnell

Metals and Metal Miners surge Oil Pops, oil stocks have a gusher week Copper, Lithium, Rare Earth Metals, Steel all surge Currencies struggle for trend direction Marijuana stocks surge It was a wild and woolly week in Commodityville!  Oil rocketed above $70 and the oil stocks price action went vertical. The humdrum sleeper Exxon shot 6.7% which is the biggest positive move on the chart.  Read More

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CHARTS SUGGEST THAT STOCKS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE BETTER -- VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF BREAKS THROUGH RESISTANCE BARRIERS

by John Murphy

STOCKS APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED THE CORNER Stocks had a very good week. Major U.S. stock indexes had their best week in two months, with all of them gaining more than 2%. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the market higher. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index hit a record high, while the Russsell 2000 isn't far behind. Sectorwise, energy and financials were  Read More

Richard W. Arms Jr., Wyckoffian

by Bruce Fraser

Richard (Dick) Arms was a very creative market technician. He tackled one of the most elusive concepts in technical analysis: Volume. He became famous for creating the 'ARMS Index' (previously known as the TRIN Index). Dick created the ARMS Index in 1967 and published it in Barron's Magazine. It caught on very quickly. Because it compared the ratio of advancing and declining stocks to the ratio  Read More