DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP weekly Wrap: Not a Good BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

In the Weekly Wrap I have been saying that a short-term buy of SPY should not be considered until the daily PMO turns up. As it happens, the PMO turned up on Thursday, but I must confess that I wasn't thrilled. When the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) turns up, we should view it as a possible short-term BUY signal; however, there are plenty of caveats to that statement. For one thing, we want to see the PMO make a smooth bottom after a nice, smooth decline. I have highlighted two of what I consider to be the best looking PMO bottoms on the chart. The problem with the most recent one is Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Monthly Charts Go "Final"

by Erin Swenlin

It's been some time since I've written about the monthly charts. Carl usually is the lucky one to cover them given the end of the month often hits on a Friday when he writes the Weekly Wrap. I thought today I'd cover the monthly charts for the DP Scoreboard indexes as well as a look at the SP400 ETF (IJH) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). I'll finish it off with the monthly charts of the "Big Four", Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds. Watch tomorrow's MarketWatchers LIVE show at 12:00p EST where I'll be talking through all of these charts with more detail. You might also be able to catch the Read More 

DecisionPoint

"DecisionPoint" Sector CandleGlance - Finding PMO Clues - XLF, XLB and XLV

by Erin Swenlin

I'm going to show you one of the ways you can use a "DecisionPoint" CandleGlance ChartStyle to immediately see, on one page, the health of all market sectors. I have written about how to use CandleGlance for sifting scans and how to set-up a "DecisionPoint" CandleGlance ChartStyle. Let's combine some of that knowledge and use DP CandleGlance to evaluate the sectors. There are a few ways to find the Sector CandleGlance. First, from the homepage, click on the Sector Summary the Control Center on the left: Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bull Market Trend Line Broken

by Carl Swenlin

I normally don't show an in-progress monthly chart because a monthly chart isn't final until the end of the month, but this week's market action was so severe, I thought that a 'big picture' view would be most helpful. The cyclical bull market rising trend line drawn from the 2016 low was decisively violated this week with a breakdown of over -5%. A 'decisive' break (-3% or greater) carries with it the assumption that lower prices will follow. This assumption is reinforced by the fact that the monthly PMO has topped and crossed down through the signal line (EOM pending). Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Afternoon Sell-Off - Indicators Oversold, Not at Extremes

by Erin Swenlin

Today's sell-offs (over 3% on the SPX , almost 4.5% on the Nasdaq and 3.79% drop on the Russell 2000) were deep and painful, but you don't need me to tell you that. I would like to be the bearer of good news, but I can't find much out there. The DP Scoreboards display the weakness in the short and intermediate terms. The Sector Scoreboard, underneath the large index Scoreboards, shows that defensive sectors are the only ones with IT Buy signals.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #1: Final Intermediate-Term BUY Signal Lost - Long Term Stays Bullish on All Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, after the market closed, the Dow saw its Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) on the weekly chart sink below its signal line, generating an IT PMO SELL signal. Today, insult was added to injury as a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal triggered. At this point, the only "green" left on the Scoreboards are the Long-Term BUY signals. The 20-EMA dropped below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA was well-above the 200-EMA. The IT Trend Model signal is Neutral. The PMO is falling fast, but hasn't reached oversold extremes. I suspect the 200-EMA will be tested once again. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Yet? Waiting for Retest. Gold New BUY Signal.

by Carl Swenlin

Despite a great rally on Tuesday, a sharp decline on Thursday took it all back, and the market finished the week barely changed. This was an options expiration week, so I think that probably had something to do with it. As of last week, I was expecting some chop in preparation for a retest of last week's low. Well, we got the chop, but I think the retest is yet to come, probably next week. We usually anticipate that a retest will result in a completed bottom, but that may not be the case this time. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Sector Signal Scoreboard Pocked with New Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

A mere two weeks ago, the Sector Signal Scoreboard (2nd slide below) was all "green" as each sector was on IT Trend Model BUY signals. The DP Scoreboards below were completely green at the beginning of September. Today both are dotted with Neutral signals (and some SELL signals in the case of the DP Scoreboards below). Most importantly, the only three sectors holding their BUY signals? The defensive sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities. The market has topped and leadership has moved to defensive areas of the market. The correction is not likely over. Read More 

DecisionPoint

Irrational Exuberance? Yes - OEX Loses IT Trend Model BUY Despite Rally

by Erin Swenlin

This morning on MarketWatchers LIVE, Tom and I were very cautious regarding today's rally. John Murphy and Arthur Hill are bearish. Carl is undecided but erring on the side of caution. So it was somewhat surprising and cause for a chuckle to see and hear the ridiculously excited big network commentators trumpeting today's rally and calling the end of the correction. Digging into the numbers, I found that volume doesn't support their exuberance or hypothesis that a new market bottom is in. Looking at the DP Scoreboards and seeing the addition of yet another IT Trend Model Neutral Read More 

DecisionPoint

Intermediate-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL on SPX! More Buy Signals Extinguished

by Erin Swenlin

I've been updating these Scoreboards frequently starting on October 5th. Three very important signal changes arrived Friday and today. We don't generally see many updates to the Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), but on Friday both the SPX and OEX followed the NDX and logged SELL signals. Now we have a IT Trend Model Neutral signal on the SPX. I was feeling somewhat safe this morning when I looked at the Swenlin Trading Oscillators and saw that on Friday they had ticked up. When I updated the chart today, I noted that both indicators are falling again. Read More 

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