DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: Rising Wedge Breakdown Sets Less Accelerated Rising Trend Line

by Carl Swenlin

Last week we were focused on the SPY rising wedge formation, the technical expectation for which was that it would break down. Well, on Tuesday it did break down, but there was no follow through afterwards. Instead, it moved sideways for two days, then rallied on Friday, challenging Monday's highs.  The result is that the wedge has almost transformed into a rising trend channel. I say "almost" because there is still a slight narrowing at the top of the channel. Nevertheless, of more immediate concern is the overhead resistance presented by the declining tops line drawn from the Read More 

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DP Alert: Selling Initiation Signals - Dollar (UUP) New PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are all bullish in the short term. The bearish rising wedge executed yesterday and the indicators are supporting a decline in the shorter term. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Trade News Dominates; Technicals Lurk

by Carl Swenlin

Just last week I wrote: There are two impending fundamental events to which the market is likely to react positively: (1) resolution of the trade issues with China; and (2) ending the government shutdown. Assuming that either event actually comes to pass, positive short-term reaction can be expected from either one, a reaction that could override negative short-term technical expectations; however, I don't think either of these events will end the bear market. On Thursday a rumor surfaced that the U.S. might lift some of the tariffs on Chinese goods, and the market rallied. The rally Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators and Mature Rising Wedge Suggest a Downturn

by Erin Swenlin

Right now, our short-term indicators (and even our climactic ones) are suggesting decline. The rising wedge formation on the SPX is quite bearish, but I also see it as being "mature." This means that price is getting very close to the apex of the wedge. I'll explain more in the section on stocks below. The DP Scoreboards are short-term positive as far as price trend and momentum, but our DP short-term indicators are far from bullish. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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And the Winning Sector is....

by Erin Swenlin

I decided to review the Sector Summary, Sector CandleGlance Charts and our DP Sector Scoreboard to see which sector(s) were "winners." In all honesty, depending on the timeframe, various sectors rein supreme. However, there is one particular sector that has performed well across all timeframes. Let's start with the DP Sector Scoreboard, where we can see the intermediate- and long-term Trend Model signals. The only three holding onto long-term BUY signals are the defensive sectors - Real Estate, Utilities and Health Care. Having a long-term Trend Model BUY signal means that the Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Expect Breakdown from Rising Wedge

by Carl Swenlin

One of my favorite chart patterns is the wedge. Rising or falling, they arrive frequently and usually resolve predictably. On this chart there happen to be two rising wedge formations. The first one led us into the bull market top in September/October of 2018. It resolved downward, as expected, but I have to admit that the massive downside follow through was atypical to say the least. The current rising wedge off the December low should also resolve downward. That is not guaranteed, but, since we're in a bear market, it is more likely. Once it breaks down, the "prediction" is fulfilled Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: New ST BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards - LT BUY for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

I took a peek at these new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signals on the DP Scoreboards. After view the charts, I came to the conclusion that, as Pat Benatar once put it, "It's a little too little, it's a little too late." If you read my article from yesterday and have been listening to me on MarketWatchers LIVE this week, you'll know that I'm short-term bullish through the end of the week (unless breadth spikes or the VIX penetrates the upper Bollinger Band on an inverse scale). I recommend you go to the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery and review the price and indicator charts for the Read More 

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Exhausting Vixen Breath...(Or 'VIX and Breadth' Buying Exhaustion)

by Erin Swenlin

A few months ago, a viewer of MarketWatchers LIVE commented that, when I talk about my Climactic Indicator chart which includes both breadth and the $VIX, it often sounds like "vixen breath". I promised viewers today that I would write about my thoughts on these climactic indicators, so I decided to look at the volatility indexes and breadth for not only the SPX, but also for NDX ($VXN), OEX ($VXO) and Dow ($VXD). They all tell a similar story. While volatility indexes can sometimes mark longer-term lows and highs, I Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: The Market Eats the Shorts Again, but Context Helps Preserve Sanity

by Carl Swenlin

With another short-covering rally, I am reminded that the primary benefit of using price charts is that they provide context. For example, I look at the TV and see that the Dow is up 800+ points, and I think holy cow what is going on? Do I need to completely reformulate my concept of the market? Then I look at the chart and I see that the current price bar resides in a neighborhood of price bars that are so similar that it doesn't even stand out. Peace and serenity restored!  I have bracketed two price groups: the four months leading up to the bull Read More 

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DP Alert: Signal Changes Galore! Dow, UUP, USO, TLT

by Erin Swenlin

**Special Announcement** Don't miss this Friday's DecisionPoint show at 4:30pm EST on StockCharts TV, where Carl will be joining me to discuss our outlook for 2019! During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, I showed viewers what the DP Scoreboards looked like at the beginning of 2018 and how they finished. As of 12/31/2018, the DP Scoreboards became 100% bearish, with no BUY signals to be found. Here's a peek at what they looked like on 1/5/2018: What a difference a year makes. Below is the monthly chart for the Read More 

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