DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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S&P 400 Stumbles with New PMO SELL Signal - Small-Cap Momentum Continues to Deteriorate

by Erin Swenlin

This morning while broadcasting the final market update during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, I commented on the bifurcation of the market. Large-Caps in general were enjoying a rally, but mid- and small-caps were running to the downside. After the market close, I received an email alert that the S&P 400 and its sister ETF, IJH triggered Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. I took a peek at the S&P 600 ETF (IJR), and noted a very negative PMO configuration. Both indexes have bearish intermediate-term indicators. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Dull Options Expiration Week; Next Week May Be More Exciting

by Carl Swenlin

I normally expect options expiration week to be dull, and with this week's range of less than one percent, I was not disappointed. I was also looking for a short-term pullback, but that did not materialize (probably because of options expiration); however, our array of indicators say that a pullback is still a strong possibility for next week. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators Back to Neutral - PMO SELL Signal for Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

The quick drop of short-term indicators is a case in point on how "oscillators must oscillate" and that overbought conditions in a strong bull market can unwind through consolidation and are therefore, not necessarily a precursor to doom and gloom. I've been writing about these indicators frequently over the past week and half and in each instance I have reiterated these concepts. At this time, we are waiting on positive crossovers of weekly PMOs to make way for Scoreboards that are all "green" or on BUY signals. The Read More 

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Materials Sector Picks Up Momentum

by Erin Swenlin

Today, both the Materials SPDR (XLB) and the equal-weight Materials ETF (RTM) posted new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signals. With talk of a trade war, many investors believe that the Materials sector could provide a decent hedge. I don't know if that is true, but I do know that the charts of these two Materials ETFs are looking promising. Looking at the daily chart, you can see that the PMO BUY signal was triggered as it crossed above its signal line. I'm not too happy with the very thin margin between the PMO and its signal line as that could set up a whipsaw. I am Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bonds Long-Term BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) for long bonds (TLT) generated a long-term BUY signal. How that happens is that the 50EMA crosses up through the 200EMA, an event more commonly known as the "Golden Cross," because big money is sure to follow (just kidding). When we say long-term, we mean months to years, but in the broader picture TLT appears to be moving sideways -- the LTTM SELL signal we just closed only lasted about five months, and with interest rates on the rise, the upside for bonds would seem to be limited. Remember, the new BUY signal does not call for immediate buying Read More 

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NDX Snags a PMO BUY Signal - NDX ST Indicators Still Very Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX killed it today with a 1.69% move higher and logging a new all-time high. The other major Scoreboard indexes managed good numbers, but none above 1% or logging all-time highs. At issue with all of the Scoreboard indexes are extremely overbought short-term indicators. These conditions need to be relieved and this rally pop did nothing to help that cause. The good news is that overbought conditions in a bull market can be eased through consolidation. Additionally, oscillators must oscillate; so, even if we continue higher, these indicators could eventually pullback in mean reversion Read More 

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DP Alert: Dow Squeaks a PMO BUY Signal - ST Indicators Very Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

I mentioned in yesterday's blog that I was expecting the PMO BUY signals to come in on the Dow and NDX. Well, NDX missed the positive crossover by less than a tenth of a point, but I suspect it'll come in tomorrow barring a particularly bad day of selling. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) remain extremely overbought, but appear to be topping. I'm expecting some sideways consolidation or perhaps a pullback. Looking at the Dow chart, we can see that the BUY signal did trigger, but the margin is very thin between the PMO and its signal line. Should we Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Scoreboards Turning Green, But Beware Short-Term Weakness

by Erin Swenlin

We've had a few signal changes arrive the past few trading days that you should be aware of. While these new green arrows look promising, the DecisionPoint Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) suggest we may experience some short-term weakness before pushing past overhead resistance at June price tops. The NDX and Dow pulled back quite a bit and therefore are the slowest to recapture short-term PMO BUY signals. However, expect a DP Bulletin soon announcing those signals. The two strongest charts are the SPX and OEX as both have managed Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: SPY Short-Term BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Wedges are a favorite of mine because they are so reliable. For example, there is a high probability that rising wedge formations will resolve downward, so it is usually best to wait for this resolution and the aftermath before going long. Two weeks ago SPY broke down from a rising wedge formation, and from there it moved sideways for almost two weeks. This could have been the prelude for a more serious decline, but on Friday SPY broke out of the two-week trading range, causing the daily PMO to turn up, which is a very short-term BUY signal. I say very short-term, because, as you can see Read More 

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Momentum is on the Rise for Large-Cap Index Components

by Erin Swenlin

Although we haven't quite seen any changes on the DP Scoreboards in the "momentum" category, detailed analysis of the PMO in all three timeframes shows signs that components of these indexes are gaining positive momentum.  The PMO Analysis charts below are in the DecisionPoint Market Indicator ChartPack. It's free to download for Extra members and above. On these charts, the pane below the PMO, is the short-term component. This tells us the percentage of SPX stocks that have the PMO rising. It hit oversold territory around 25% and is now turning back up, already to nearly 50%. The Read More 

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