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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lumber Sees Rogue Wave, Now Ready For a Bounce

by Tom McClellan

Lumber prices are going through what I call a “rogue wave” event, named for the massive oceanic waves which can swamp ships. The physics of the oceanic rogue waves are similar to those in the financial markets. The implication for lumber futures prices is that we should see a return to the 450-500 area, up from the current prices in the low 300s.  In the ocean, a rogue wave forms when one wave “borrows” energy from adjacent waves, making a localized wave crest well above the surrounding sea level. Rogue waves in the ocean are also marked by having an adjacent trough that Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 11, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The above chart is from Nautilus Investment Research. It is a seasonality chart for the month of December, going back 91 years. The low for December according to this Seasonality chart is expected on the 15th, which is Saturday. The FOMC meeting occurs on December 18 and 19, next Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears the market is settling at a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: More of the same, only more so...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/ErVJMf When you get more of the same in all probability you will get more of the same  -- as in the first rule of trends --the present trend tends to continue. This also pertains to volatility. From the last high, the market is down 316 points. In the last three trading days price is down 177 points. A prescription for watching with fascination from the sidelines. W.H.C. Bassetti Edwards-Magee.com Click here for more information on subscribing to the Edwards & Magee newsletter. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Mortgage Rates Explain Housing Weakness

by Tom McClellan

Housing sector stocks have been among the worst performers in 2018, and analysts are pointing to lots of different reasons, including the newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. But an easier explanation arises when we look at interest rates. Mortgage rates are not yet empirically “high.” I bought my first house with a 13% mortgage, so rates that start with the number 4 still seem pretty low, at least to me and my ge-ge-generation. The key insight contained in this week’s chart is that mortgage rates are high compared to 30-year T-Bond rates. Both rates Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 6, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The American Association of Individual Investors' bull bear ratio (AAII) has reached levels where intermediate term lows have formed. The .75 level of the 3-period moving average (AAII) has been hit, suggesting markets are at an intermediate term low. The TRIN closed at 2.76 and Ticks at -357, producing panic readings that suggest a bottom will Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Consumer Discretionary Sector Shows Enormity of the Beat-Down

by Tom McClellan

Investors’ appetites for risk taking can be measured with the comparison of the Consumer Discretionary sector versus Consumer Staples. The big shift in their behavior recently shows the huge abandonment of risk appetite in October to November 2018, but it also creates a huge oversold opportunity. The staples companies make things which consumers need all the time; our use of tooth paste and toilet paper does not vary much with the state of the economy. But if economic prospects are looking grim, we might exercise “discretion” by holding off buying a new pair of $200 Nike Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 28, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 We looked at the 3, 10, 21 day moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio several days ago. The chart has been updated to yesterday’s close. There are a lot of equity puts the public is holding and, previously, when they have been loaded up in Puts on the 3, 10, and 21 day periods the market was near an intermediate term low. The last time they (public) Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 20, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Today the TRIN closed at 1.42 and the Ticks at -74, a bullish combination. It would have been more bullish if the Tick closed below -200, but nevertheless a bullish combination is present, suggesting a short term low could form from today to as late as two days later, which would be Friday (Thursday is Thanksgiving). Longer term studies suggests minimum upside is the 2980 range and over 3000 is a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Oil's Drop Bigger Than Called For, But Right On Schedule

by Tom McClellan

Crude oil prices reached a new multi-year high on October 3, and then started a dramatic drop. It has just now fallen for 12 straight trading days to reach the lowest close since December 2017. There are various theories about why this has happened, attributing it to comments from President Trump, OPEC chicanery, Iranian oil exports, falling demand, fracking overproduction, and all manner of other explanations. But few of those explanations address the “when” question, concerning why this is happening now.  Thankfully, gold gives us an answer to that “when” Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 14, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The SPX is down four days in a row; in the last five years, 17 of 18 (94%) closed higher by 1.4% within 5 days (Ukarlewitz). The McClellan Oscillator hit a new short term high last week of +212, suggesting an initiation of an intermediate up move. For very short term, the SPY may be drawing a Head and Shoulders bottom where a “Right Shoulder” is forming now. There is symmetry both in Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 6, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX Monitor Purposes: Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Today’s SPY rally tested the high of three days ago on lighter volume, suggesting resistance. There is a gap below that was tested three days ago on higher volume, which suggests that gap could be tested again which comes in the 270 range. Not sure if the market will pull back and test the gap, but if it does we expect the gap to hold and reverse back to up. There is evidence that market may Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: The Long View of the Market with Basing Point Stops...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

This chart clearly shows the break of the 2016 trend line. Below we will examine the placement of long term Basing Point stops. http://schrts.co/tfJisN It is always wise to know where the long term stops (calculated from Basing Points) are located. In this chart, the horizontal lines represent stop locations depending on the Basing Point you choose. In our opinion the lower line (2429) is the signal that the bull market has broken. Nevertheless the upper line (2537) is a valid stop level also. So if the risk between the present price Read More 

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