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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lofty RASI Says Uptrend Is Not Done Yet

by Tom McClellan

We are now 4 months into the rebound off of the Dec. 24, 2018 low, so it is a natural question to wonder if the uptrend is going to continue, or whether instead the major averages are going to stop here at the level of the prior highs. This week’s chart offers us some useful clues about which answer applies this time. Here is the shortcut version: Gobs of breadth is a good thing. Now here is the longer explanation: When the NYSE’s A-D Line is really strong for a long period, it produces really high readings for the McClellan Oscillator. That in turn pushes up the McClellan Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 23, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Not expecting a runaway market here. SPX tested last September high today. Above is the “Total Put/Call Ratio” (CPC), which closed today at .79. We have marked the previous times when CPC reached .79 with red vertical lines. In all cases, the market either declined or flipped sideways. April is usually an up month in pre-election years Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lumber Gets Its Mojo Back

by Tom McClellan

Back on March 22, I wrote here about how the price of lumber had lost its ability to correctly foretell several economic data series which tend to follow in lumber’s footsteps. The big blowoff move up to the May 2018 top at 639, where lumber stayed for about a nanosecond, has not been getting replicated in the other data related to housing. My explanation for this is that it was not a pure supply/demand event, with messaging about what lies ahead for the other data series. It was, instead, a speculative blowoff move, spurred by the U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 17, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The second window down from the top is the 3-period moving average of the TRIN. Readings above 1.30 are normally bullish if they come after a decline in the market. If the 3-period MA TRIN readings come when the market has rallied, that can be a bearish sign; and that is what we have here. It's rare during a rally that the 3-period MA of the TRIN Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: 2-Year Yield and Fed Funds Finally in Balance

by Tom McClellan

I have long advocated for the FOMC getting out of the business of setting short-term interest rates, and instead they should outsource that job to the 2-year T-Note yield. While that outsourcing might put several American PhD economists out of work, I’m okay with that, because it would give us the benefit of having more efficient monetary policy with less severe bubbles and depressions.  This week’s chart compares the Fed Funds target rate (black line) to the 2-year T-Note yield (green). When the green line is above the black line, that means the Fed is setting the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 9, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Next week is options expiration week and the week before (i.e. this week) is where whipsaws are common in the market. VIX trades opposite of the SPY and, when there is a divergence, a pullback in the SPY is possible. Sometimes the VIX leads in price (opposite direction) to where SPY is heading. Today the VIX reached it April 1 high, suggesting the SPY Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: The snowball...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/EETcHtyM The power of this wave is illustrated here. The horizontal line is resistance and, as you can see, that resistance has stopped price many times. Two reactions here mark minor and major wave highs. The implications of this first recovery wave are great. Technicians believe and have observed that the first wave in a new series has predictive implications - using the rule of seven. This procedure generates several targets - in this case, the first two are 3164 and 3434. From the recently important level of 2800, these may be Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: VIX Futures Open Interest

by Tom McClellan

VIX futures contracts have only been a thing since March 2004, and they were not a big thing when they first started. In more recent years, they have become an important tool for a lot of hedge funds and other portfolios, and they have also become important in terms of giving us information about what lies ahead. This week’s chart looks at the total open interest in all of the different VIX futures contracts which are open at any given time. It does an interesting job of correlating well with what stock prices are doing, as modeled here by the SP500. Extremely high readings for Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 2, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78. Divergences are still present. The SPY set a new short term high and the VIX closed at a higher low, a short term bearish sign. As VIX trades opposite SPY, VIX should have made a new short term low as SPY made a new short term high. Having said that, the VIX remains below +16 and intermediate-term bullish for the SPY. The bottom window is the XLF (ETF Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Bond CEF A-D Line Showing Big Strength

by Tom McClellan

Liquidity is the big factor which drives the overall stock market. But liquidity is not measurable; it has no units. It is like the wind -- you cannot see the wind, you can only see what the wind does to trees, buildings, carports, etcetera. So if you want to know what the wind is doing, you need a windsock. And if you want to know what liquidity is doing, you similarly need an indicator of what liquidity is doing, good or bad. This week’s chart does a pretty good job at that task. And it comes from an area which several other analysts have maligned, which of Read More 

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