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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: 4 Years Ago, and Again Today

by Tom McClellan

Four years ago, we had a remarkably similar market price action to this year’s. And that makes no fundamental sense, since all of the factors which should matter are different. Four years ago, the Fed was still doing QE3. That program was winding down, but in October 2014 the Federal Reserve still added another $24 billion to its balance sheet. Contrast that to October 2018, when the Fed is unwinding its balance sheet at a stated rate of $50 billion per month. Four years ago, the U.S. was in the middle of President Obama’s second term, facing a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 17, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Covered short SPX on 10/10/18 at 2785.68= gain of 3.46%; Short long term on 10/5/18 at 2885.57. Ideally, we would like to see a retest of last Thursday’s low and there is a possibility that may happen. For one, last Thursday’s low had high volume, which is usually tested at some point. Also, the 3-day TRIN did not reach levels associated with longer-term lows (especially the degree of the decline). Above, in the bottom window, is the Index put/call Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: Alphabetagamma etcetc.

by W.H.C. Bassetti

Editor's Note: This article was originally posted in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends on Sunday, October 14th at 11:49pm ET. http://schrts.co/ReUYY8 This is not the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, but it is the aftermath of a hurricane -- Hurricane Trump. http://schrts.co/1EWJHa As always, correlation returned to 1 as shown here by AMZN. On Friday, bold traders began trying to catch the falling knife, and prices staged a recovery. As longtime readers know Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: Black Wednesday...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

Editor's Note: This article was originally posted in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends on Thursday, October 11th at 1:23am ET. Is any commentary needed?  The crack we commented on several days ago grew into a chasm--today 831.83 points, 3.15%. You should notice the similarity between this nascent formation and the action of Jan-Feb.  Neither sell-off is preceded by a top formation, but erupts almost without warning--except, of course, the broken trend lines. The existence of this previous formation and the lack of a top formation make us think that Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 10, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Short SPX on 10/5/18 at 2885.57. The top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. The bottom window is the percent of stocks that are above the 150 day moving average. Bearish declines can occur when the McClellan Oscillator falls below +500 (current reading is -44.60) and the stocks above the 150-day moving average fall below 70% (current reading is 51.19).  The Trin closed today at 1.25 and the Tick at -159, which can produce a bounce Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: A-D Line Diverging

by Tom McClellan

We are now in the period of bullish seasonality. And we are just about to enter the bullish 3rd year of the current presidential term. So all signs should be starting to point upward now, after the normal weakness of a presidential term’s 2nd year.  One problem is that we have not seen that normal 2nd year weakness. Another problem is that just as things are supposed to start getting stronger, there are signs of weakening internals. Among the most troubling of these signs is an A-D Line divergence. The DJIA has continued to make new all-time highs Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 3, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 9/27/18 at 2914. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. The chart above shows the new lows for the NYSE. SPX has been holding steady while the NYSE new lows reached above 150. In previous times (going back a year and half) when the New Lows hit 150 and higher, the market was at a low. This time, it could be different; the market could be consolidating, going sideways and building energy for the next rally Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Ten Hindenburgs So Far

by Tom McClellan

The stock market has been doing something peculiar lately. In an obvious uptrend, we are starting to see an increasing number of NYSE-listed issues making new 52-week lows. When the number of New Highs (NH) and New Lows (NL) both exceed a certain threshold on the same day, coupled with some other criteria, that is known as a Hindenburg Omen. And what we are seeing lately is a very large cluster of them in a short time span, a behavior that tends to have more importance than a lone signal all by itself. This signal was created by the late Jim Miekka, who Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 26, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. On Thursday and Friday of last week, the Volume on the SPY jumped over 30% from the previous day volume which implies short term exhaustion to the upside. Friday’s volume was higher than Thursday’s volume and most high volume highs are tested, suggesting that Friday’s price high will be tested again. The DIA was higher four days in a row going into last Friday, and the DIA closed Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold Now Bound to the Yuan

by Tom McClellan

Old-school monetarists have longed for a return to having gold as the real reserve currency. So here is a fun quandary: suppose you’re a hard-core auriphile, longing for a return to gold being the world’s reserve currency.  Suppose you could get what you have longed for, but with a price: China gets to call the shots. Do you accept the deal?  This week’s chart shows that the movements of gold prices are pretty tightly tied to the movements of the Chinese yuan. So if gold prices are ever going to start trending higher again, then the yuan is going to have to go along Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 19, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. This week is the September option expiration which has a bullish bias 63% of the time. Yesterday, we said “the SPX was higher five days in a row going into last Friday; it was higher at least once within the next five days 18 of the last 18 times” (new higher high today, bingo). The bottom window is the “3 day average of the TRIN” and readings below .8 can lead to short term Read More 

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